I noticed an interesting point in the market — the altcoin season index then jumped to 38, which was a significant spike of seven points in a single day. This is a metric from CoinMarketCap that tracks how altcoins perform relative to Bitcoin. When it rises, it usually indicates that capital is starting to flow from Bitcoin into alternative assets.

For those who are not in the know: the index analyzes the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins), comparing their 90-day returns with Bitcoin. A reading of 38 means that 38 of these altcoins recently outperformed Bitcoin. This is not yet a full altcoin season — for that, the index needs to reach 75, when most altcoins will be leading. But the trend was clearly upward.

Historically, such movements in the index often precede more active capital rotation. In previous periods of such index growth, we saw consecutive rallies in DeFi projects, Layer 1 networks, and other mid-cap altcoins. Analysts pointed to several factors: reduced selling pressure on major altcoins, stabilization of Bitcoin’s dominance, positive movements within certain ecosystems.

However, all experts agreed on one thing — a single data point does not establish a trend. It was necessary to see if the index would stay above 50 for several weeks to speak of a true altcoin season. It was more of a “market warm-up” period, where traders start testing alternative assets, but a full rally was still ahead.