Today I saw someone say that the on-chain "coincidental transfer" looks like insider trading. My first reaction was to analyze the path: where the funds came from, which hop changed assets, whether they went through mixing or cross-chain bridges, and finally whether they ended up at an exchange or dispersed to new addresses. Many times, if you match the timing, fees, and commonly used interaction contracts, you can see it's the same group of people "moving" their assets—it's not mysticism.

By the way, I was also thinking about the macro perspective: when the rate cut expectations change, the US dollar index and risk assets both turn, and the on-chain activity also becomes more impatient...
Later, I thought it was quite funny—everyone focuses on the result but is unwilling to go through the process.
Anyway, I just look at a few indicators (fees, open interest, sentiment) combined with on-chain flows—I'm not a guru, just trying to avoid pitfalls.