The long and short battle in Bitcoin's range-bound trading continues, HYPE faces a critical support test of Wave V | Exclusive analysis

This week, the market is searching for direction amid volatility, with opportunities and risks coexist. The HYPE daily wave Ⅴ structure faces a critical validation point; whether the $40.17 support holds or not will determine the subsequent trend; BTC is hovering between the continuation of the D wave rebound and pressure zones, with the bulls and bears still contesting in the $73,500–$79,000 range, remaining a core focus.

Follow the trend, strictly adhere to discipline, to navigate the complex market steadily.

Summary of core trading viewpoints this week:

• Analysis of HYPE’s current trend structure. (See Part 1 for details)

• Market forecast and short-term trading strategies for HYPE this week. (See Part 2 for details)

• Multi-timeframe trend structure analysis of BTC. (See Part 3 for details)

• Market forecast and mid- to short-term trading strategies for BTC this week. (See Part 4 for details)

Market validation of last week’s trading strategies and core viewpoints:

• Short-term trading results for HYPE: Last week, HYPE completed a short-term long position (1x leverage), achieving a total profit of approximately 6.80%. (See Table 1)

• Market validation of HYPE trend forecast: In previous articles, we pointed out that the rebound starting from the April 2 low of $34.44 constitutes a potential daily wave Ⅴ upward structure. The current market trend confirms our earlier view. Last week, the rebound peaked at $45.75, successfully breaking the March 18 wave III high of $43.78, and setting a new high for this upward trend.

• Market validation of BTC mid-term trading results: Bitcoin followed the established mid-term strategy last week, holding a short position at $89,000 (1x leverage), with a profit of about 17.08% as of last week’s close (around $73,800), with a maximum profit of approximately 32.58% during the period.

• Market validation of BTC trend forecast: In last week’s article, we indicated that the market would maintain a wide-range sideways oscillation. The current trend confirms our previous forecast.

1. HYPE: Trend Structure Analysis

HYPE 4-hour candlestick chart

Figure 1

1. As shown in (Figure 1), HYPE reached a new high of $45.76 on April 16, marking a rebound high since the February 6 low of $20.46, and broke through the previous high of $43.78 on March 18 (wave III high). Therefore, the rally from the April 2 low of $34.44 can be temporarily viewed as a daily wave Ⅴ upward structure, which is currently in progress.

2. As shown in (Figure 1), this daily wave Ⅴ can be further subdivided in the 4-hour timeframe into four segments: an upward structure composed of 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, and 31-32.

3. Currently, the market is in the 31-32 correction phase.

• In the HYPE 4-hour structure, our self-developed momentum quantification model detects that two momentum signals have both moved below zero, indicating that this correction phase may be prolonged.

• The potential correction endpoint (point 32) is close to the previous support level of $40.17 (point 30).

2. HYPE forecast and short-term trading strategies for this week

1. HYPE market forecast for this week:

As shown in (Figure 1), pay attention to whether point 32 breaks below point 30 (i.e., $40.17):

• If it holds above, expect sideways consolidation between $40.17 and $45.76.

• If it breaks below this support and the subsequent rebound cannot surpass $45.76 (point 31), it forms a classic technical pattern of “correction breaking previous low but rebound not making new highs.” This suggests that the daily wave Ⅴ upward structure starting from the April 2 low of $34.44 may have likely ended at $45.76.

2. Short-term trading strategies for HYPE this week:

• Based on the overall bullish trend forecast, follow the principle of “trend-following, buy on dips.”

• Use the signals from our self-built quantitative models, with 30-minute/60-minute trading cycles, employing 30% position size to capture entry opportunities.

• Entry strategy: HYPE is facing a correction at the start of the week. If the price dips to test the key support near $40.17 and shows signs of stabilization above it, combined with buy signals from the two models at the bottom, consider entering long positions with strict stop-loss discipline.

3. Multi-timeframe trend structure analysis of BTC

1. BTC daily wave classification: (Based on the market since the October 6, 2025 high)

Bitcoin _ Daily candlestick chart:

Figure 2

As shown in (Figure 2), since the rebound from the February 6 low of $60,000, Bitcoin not only hit a new rebound high of $78,333 on April 17 but also has been in operation for about 73 trading days as of April 19. Its duration and space have significantly exceeded the previous forecast of “C wave correction within a C wave,” such as the rebound lasting over 54 days in B wave. Therefore, from wave theory analysis, the original framework may need adjustment. We prefer to redefine this rally from $60,000 as a larger “D wave rebound,” which aligns better with the current market reality of time extending the rebound cycle.

The specific mid-term correction wave classification can be optimized as follows:

• Wave A correction (downward drive): from the October 6, 2025 high of $126,200 to the November 21, 2025 low of $80,600, lasting about 46 days, with a maximum decline of about 36%. This wave establishes the mid-term correction pattern.

• Wave B rebound (complex correction): from the November 21, 2025 low of $80,600 to the January 14, 2026 high of $97,924, lasting about 54 days, with a maximum rise of about 21.5%. This is a correction of Wave A’s decline.

• Wave C correction (main downtrend): from the January 14, 2026 high of $97,924, with a rapid decline to the $60,000 low on February 6, 2026, lasting about 22 days, with a maximum decline of about 38.7%. This wave completes the main correction space.

• Wave D rebound (ongoing/possibly incomplete): from the February 6, 2026 low of $60,000 to April 19, it has lasted about 73 days, with a maximum rise of about 30.6% (from $60,000 to $78,333). This rebound is characterized by a long duration, complex structure, and currently faces critical time windows and resistance zones (e.g., $79,000–$80,600). If Wave D is confirmed, after the rebound ends, an “E wave” correction may follow.

2. Deep analysis of BTC trend structure

Bitcoin _ 4-hour candlestick chart

Figure 3

• Based on the market evolution after the March 30 low of $65,000.

• As shown in (Figure 3), BTC has been oscillating upward since the March 30 low. The structure from point 18 to point 24 consists of six segments: 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, and 23-24.

• The chart indicates that from point 18 to point 23, a clear 5-wave rebound structure has been completed, and the current wave is in the 23-24 segment. Our self-developed spread trading model has issued multiple top warning signals recently (green and white dots), indicating that the technical indicators are in a serious overbought state, and short-term correction is needed.

4. BTC forecast and trading strategies for this week

1. BTC market forecast for this week:

• Core view:

Currently oscillating within the $73,500–$79,000 range, watch for bulls and bears contesting near the upper and lower boundaries. If a rebound breaks above the upper boundary, expect a limited upward correction; if it breaks below the lower boundary, the price may further decline toward the key support around $69,500.

2. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance zone: $79,000–$80,600 (near the November 2025 low)

• Second resistance zone: $83,500–$84,500 (area of previous heavy trading and consolidation)

3. Key support levels:

• First support: around $73,500 (Previous key support(

• Second support: around $69,500 )Previous key support(

• Third support: $65,000–$66,000 zone )Lower boundary of the oscillation range(

4. Trading strategies for this week )excluding unexpected news impacts(: )04.20–04.26(

①, Mid-term strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily candlestick chart: )Position monitoring model(

Figure 4

Position monitoring model: As shown in (Figure 4), currently, the price is oscillating near the bulls and bears band. According to our strategy rules, we hold a 60% short position established at $89,000 (January 28).

• If this week’s rebound successfully stabilizes above the bulls and bears band, close all mid-term positions.

②, Short-term strategy: Use 30% position, set stop-loss points based on support and resistance levels, and look for “spread” trading opportunities. )Use 30-minute/60-minute cycles(.

③, Based on the forecast of a medium-term bearish trend, adhere to the principle of “trend-following shorting”. To adapt dynamically to market evolution and in conjunction with signals from our trading models, we propose two short-term plans:

• Plan A: Rebound resistance, short on highs.

• Entry: When the price rebounds to the $76,500–$79,000 zone and triggers resistance signals, combined with top signals from the models, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $80,600.

• Exit: When the price drops near key support and model signals indicate, gradually close positions for profit.

• Plan B: Breakdown shorting on continuation.

• Entry: When the price continues to decline and effectively breaks below $73,500 support, combined with top signals from the models, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $74,500.

• Exit: When the price falls to support levels and model signals confirm, gradually close positions for profit.

5. HYPE: Operation review

1. Short-term trading review: (see Table 1)

We strictly followed the trading plan, using signals from our spread trading and momentum quantification models, completing one short-term (long) operation last week, with a total profit of 6.80%.

2. Summary of HYPE short-term trades: )Leverage *1x(

Table 1

3. Short-term trade review: (see Figure 5)

• Entry: Based on the trend judgment of wave Ⅴ; the spread trading model issued early bottom warning signals (green and white dots in the chart); momentum model’s two momentum lines moved above zero, and both models resonated with buy signals. We entered a 30% long position at $41.59.

• Exit: When the price approached $45 and encountered resistance, and the spread trading model triggered strong top warning signals (green and white dots), we closed all positions around $44.42.

• Summary: This trade yielded a profit of approximately 6.80%.

HYPE 60-minute candlestick chart: )Momentum quantification + spread trading models(

Figure 5 (short-term trading illustration)

6. Special tips:​​

1. When opening a position: immediately set an initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move the stop-loss to the entry price (break-even point) to protect capital.

3. When profit reaches 2%: move the stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are ever-changing; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All viewpoints, models, and strategies discussed herein are based on personal technical analysis, for personal trading logs only, and do not constitute investment advice or operational guidance. Market risks are inherent; please trade cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this information.