Ceasefire remaining 24 hours, Trump orders U.S. Navy to station three aircraft carriers in the Middle East "Negotiations must not be delayed," Iranian Speaker responds: "Refuse to proceed under threats."

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement will expire on April 22 (Wednesday) evening, and Trump has explicitly stated that “it is unlikely to be extended”; meanwhile, three US aircraft carrier strike groups are unusually converging on the Middle East, with the maritime blockade operation “Operation Epic Fury” continuing to escalate. Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf issued a tough warning early morning on April 21, saying “no negotiations under the shadow of threats,” while Supreme Leader Khamenei reaffirmed three core positions, refusing to budge.
(Background: Iran: Reclaim control of the Hormuz Strait! No agreement on US participation in the next round of talks)
(Additional context: US officially blocks the Hormuz Strait! Not blocking non-Iranian ships, WTI crude oil back above $101)

Table of Contents

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• Three carriers converge: Operation Epic Fury escalates
• Trump’s statement: “No talks, face unprecedented problems”
• Iran’s tough counterattack: Three positions, new cards, refusing to negotiate under threats
• BTC surges to $76.6k, Air Force liquidates $195 million: a safe-haven signal in the crypto market

Less than 24 hours before the US-Iran ceasefire expires, the situation is rapidly heating up. The ceasefire signed on April 8 will expire on April 22 (Wednesday) evening, and Trump has publicly stated that “it is unlikely to be extended.” In this final countdown, the US military has deployed three carrier strike groups simultaneously in the Middle East, an unprecedented move, while Iran’s top leadership issued consecutive statements on the same night, with such strong language that concerns about renewed conflict have sharply increased. On April 17-18, US and Iranian delegations held marathon negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, lasting 21 hours, but ended without agreement, mainly over the destination of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and control of the Hormuz Strait—two core issues remain unresolved to this day.

Three carriers converge: Operation Epic Fury escalates

According to CCTV citing foreign reports, the US has formed an unprecedented encirclement in the Middle East with three carrier strike groups (CSGs). The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is currently deployed near the Gulf of Oman and the Hormuz Strait, actively participating in the maritime blockade operation codenamed “Operation Epic Fury,” targeting Iran’s major ports; the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is located in the northern Red Sea, having just moved south through the Suez Canal into CENTCOM jurisdiction on April 16; the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) departed Norfolk, Virginia, on March 31, choosing a long route around the Cape of Good Hope, and was spotted off South Africa in early April, expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea by the end of April, possibly replacing the “Ford” group’s deployment. The simultaneous presence of these three strike groups is the densest US naval force projection in recent years in a single region, widely interpreted as a strong pressure signal ahead of the impending expiration of the ceasefire agreement. On April 19, the US further seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, further damaging the already fragile negotiation atmosphere.

Trump’s statement: “No talks, face unprecedented problems”

In a CNN phone interview, Trump reiterated his maximum pressure stance. He claimed “Iran will negotiate,” expressed confidence in the upcoming round of talks in Pakistan, and emphasized his desire to reach a “fair agreement,” but with a clear bottom line: “Iran will not have nuclear weapons.” Regarding the military measures already taken, Trump directly justified “having no choice,” and hinted that if negotiations break down, the US will “finish the job”—such strong language is interpreted by many foreign media as opening the door to military action. Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir is currently shuttling in Tehran, meeting with Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian, and Trump has previously hinted at possibly attending a signing ceremony in Islamabad himself—but with significant gaps remaining between the two sides, this possibility is rapidly shrinking.

Iran’s tough counterattack: Three positions, new cards, refusing to negotiate under threats

On the critical night before the ceasefire, Iran’s top leadership issued consecutive statements with consistent tough language. Iranian Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf responded directly to US pressure early morning on April 21: “Iran does not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.” He accused Trump of trying to “turn the negotiation table into a surrender table” by maintaining sanctions and violating the agreed ceasefire, or seeking an excuse to “restart war.” Ghalibaf also revealed that Iran has prepared a “new card” over the past two weeks but did not specify details. Meanwhile, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed three unshakeable positions on April 20: demanding the other side pay “war reparations” and hold those responsible for attacks accountable; pushing for a “new phase” of Hormuz Strait management, implying Iran seeks greater control; and never abandoning legitimate rights, viewing the entire region’s “resistance front” as a unified whole, inseparable. Iran also accused the US of violating at least three commitments in the 10-point framework, including the seizure of an Iranian cargo ship on April 19, which directly undermines the basis for the second round of negotiations. Iran officially announced the reclamation of control over the Hormuz Strait on April 18, and there are fundamental disagreements with the US over the interpretation of the 60-day memorandum.

BTC surges to $76.6k, Air Force liquidates $195 million: a safe-haven signal in the crypto market

The fuse of the geopolitical powder keg is shortening, and the crypto market has responded first. The immediate consequence of this surge is a $195 million liquidation by the derivatives market in a single day, accounting for 70% of the total $280 million liquidated across the market. More notably, there are signs of decoupling between BTC and traditional risk assets—the Nasdaq index ended its 13-day winning streak amid worsening US-Iran tensions, while BTC is increasingly viewed by institutions as a safe-haven asset independent of US stocks, approaching gold’s logic. BlackRock’s IBIT saw weekly inflows of $871 million, and Bitcoin spot ETFs have turned positive by a total of $1.9 billion in 2026, indicating deepening institutional recognition of BTC’s safe-haven role. Oil prices, meanwhile, saw Brent crude spike to a record high of $118 per barrel in March, with WTI re-approaching $101 on April 13, showing that energy market tensions remain. Notably, early 2026 reports indicated Iran requested payment in Bitcoin for ships passing through the Hormuz Strait—if this “cryptopolitical precedent” expands after a ceasefire breakdown, it could further increase BTC’s correlation with Middle East tensions. This week’s three key observations: whether the ceasefire will be renewed with renewed military action, the impact of CPI data on inflation narratives, and whether the FOMC’s next move can stabilize market nerves.