4.21

The market seems to be pricing in expectations for Wosh, and is waiting for the Federal Reserve’s hearing, but I always feel that even if Wosh comes into power, there’s a high chance he wouldn’t start being dovish right after taking office—that would be too “obvious.” Even if it’s “pretending,” it would still be more logical to “pretend” to be hawkish for a while, and then switch to “dovish” before the midterm elections.
Last time, it was the ENA project that had issues, triggering the 1011 disaster. Yesterday, the project that ran into problems was also Difi. There are far too many DeFi projects on-chain now. Even some projects with little presence can still cause “massive losses.” This kind of “paper-thin security” that creates a chain reaction is also, to some extent, one of the reasons why BlackRock later on is not very optimistic about crypto. In the previous bull market, there were also quite a few friends who specialized in studying DeFi projects, using multi-layer collateral to carry out arbitrage. If I remember correctly, they could even build portfolios with annualized returns exceeding 30%. If they do that again this round, they’ve probably already “gotten liquidated”…
The big picture has already been touched at 765. Now it’s retracing to the 1-hour level at the top-to-low swap area. The support zones are 765-762 and 750-748. The pullback after 12 o’clock will be even more obvious. If you don’t have a position and want to go long, you can wait until the daily line and intraday lines switch to place a light trial order (17:00~19:00).