Just came across something interesting from a macroeconomic perspective. Raoul Pal was discussing how the crypto market selloff in 2025 wasn't just about internal issues—it was really about global liquidity drying up. Makes sense when you think about it.

What caught my attention was his take on how different assets got hit. The really speculative stuff took 90-99% losses, mid-tier projects fell 50-65%, Ethereum dropped around 40%, but Bitcoin held up relatively better. That resilience is telling you something about the market structure, right?

But here's where it gets interesting. Raoul Pal's analysis suggests Bitcoin isn't actually priced correctly right now. He ran the numbers against tech stocks and global liquidity patterns, and according to his models, Bitcoin should be trading significantly higher if it followed the same correlation patterns. His Raoul Pal Bitcoin prediction based on these macroeconomic models puts it in the $160K range when liquidity normalizes.

The thing is, there was that perfect storm in October 2025—US government shutdown, large sellers, market makers pulling out, exchange issues—that basically broke the normal correlation between Bitcoin and the broader liquidity cycle. It created this temporary disconnect.

Looking ahead to 2026, the setup could actually be pretty favorable. Falling rates, fiscal stimulus, regulatory clarity potentially opening up capital flows. We're already seeing early signs in gold and silver rallying. If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could be the next domino in this capital rotation as liquidity conditions improve throughout the year.

Current BTC price sitting around $75.75K, so there's a lot of runway if this macro thesis plays out. Worth keeping an eye on how global liquidity develops over the next few quarters.