Market Overview for April 21: The Nasdaq's 13-day winning streak ends, but the Russell 2000 hits a record high

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

US Stocks: Nasdaq ends 13-day record, while Russell 2000 quietly hits a new high

On Monday’s close, the S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 7,109.14 points, ending a five-day winning streak. The Nasdaq dropped 0.26% to 24,404.39 points, putting an end today to the longest 13-day rally since 1992. The Dow was nearly flat, down 4.87 points to 49,442.56.

But the most interesting story isn’t in the broad market—it’s in the small caps. The Russell 2000 rose 0.58% to 2,792.96 points, setting a new all-time closing high, and it also refreshed its all-time intraday high.

What does this divergence mean? After a violent rebound over two weeks, large tech stocks are starting to catch their breath: Meta fell 2.6%, Tesla fell 2%, Alphabet fell 1.2%, and Broadcom fell 1.7%. But money hasn’t left the market—it has rotated into small-cap stocks, financials, and cyclicals. JPMorgan rose 2.2%, and Salesforce rose 2.3%. This is a healthy sign: at high levels, the market is rotating sectors rather than retreating across the board.

Aptus Capital’s David Wagner put it in a line that may define the current market mood: “For the market, the Iran war is already in the rearview mirror.”

Scott Welch, Chief Investment Officer at Certuity, offered a more nuanced view: “The S&P wasn’t cheap before the war, and the recent rebound has merely brought us back to the levels at the start of the year. Investors will soon refocus on more fundamental issues—valuations, earnings outlook, inflation, the economy, the labor market, and Fed policy.”

Thirty-five S&P 500 components hit 52-week highs on Monday— even on down days, strength at the single-stock level has persisted.

Another major schedule item today: Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee hearing. As Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, his remarks on monetary policy will directly affect how the market prices the path for rate cuts/hikes. (Note: As of the report deadline, the hearing was still ongoing. )

Oil Prices: The tanker seizure lifts prices by 6%, but the $82 floor is still far below wartime highs

WTI was up about 6% intraday on Monday, driven by the dual factors of the U.S. military seizing an Iranian cargo vessel and the Strait closing again.

From last Friday’s rebound of $82.59, back to around $88. But comparatively: two weeks ago, oil was still at $116. From $116 to $82, and then rebounding to $88— the war risk premium has already been squeezed out by about 25%, even after considering today’s rebound.

The core contradiction hasn’t changed: the U.S. blockades Iranian ports, Iran controls the Strait’s passage, and the dual blockade remains. Last Friday’s oil price plunge of 9.4% was because the market was pricing in “peace is coming,” while today’s 6% rebound is because the tanker seizure reminds the market that peace still isn’t here.

The ceasefire expires tomorrow. If it isn’t renewed, Trump said “bombs will start flying.” If Iran’s delegation really goes to Islamabad for a second round of talks, a ceasefire extension is highly likely in some form. Oil prices are now seeking a balance between these two scenarios, and $82–$95 could be the new range for the coming weeks.

Gold: $4,813—the last safe haven before the ceasefire expires

Gold is around $4,813, down from last Friday’s $4,879.

The tanker seizure should, in theory, be bullish for gold (rising geopolitical risk), but last Friday’s jump (+1.48% to around $4,880) has already partially priced in risks of this kind. Gold is currently trading in the $4,800–$4,880 range, waiting for tomorrow’s ceasefire expiration to provide direction.

Warsh’s hearing is another highlight today. If he shows a more dovish tilt on monetary policy than Powell (the market broadly expects him to be more open to rate cuts), gold could gain additional upward momentum. If his remarks lean hawkish, the $4,800 support will face a test.

Cryptocurrency: Holding steady amid the ceasefire countdown

Bitcoin is hovering around $76,000.

Under the triple pressure of the U.S. military seizing an Iranian cargo vessel, the Strait closing again, and the ceasefire expiring tomorrow, BTC’s decline is less than 2%—this resilience has been repeatedly validated by the market. From the drop from $85,000 at the end of February to $65,000, then rebounding to above $75,000, BTC has completed a full “war cycle” pricing.

The market’s core pricing logic for crypto has shifted from “geopolitical panic” to “macro expectations.” The assumption implied by BTC’s position above $74,000 is: the ceasefire will continue in some form, oil prices won’t return above 100, inflation data will improve over the next few months, and the Fed will eventually cut rates.

If tomorrow these assumptions are broken—ceasefire expiration + war restart + an oil price surge—BTC could quickly retest $70,000, or even $67,000. But if Iran truly goes to Islamabad for a second round, the market will interpret this as “the end of the war is just a matter of time,” and BTC could surge to $78,000–$80,000.

One interesting observation: Russell 2000 set a new all-time high today, which is usually a sign that the U.S. economy’s fundamentals are strong. Small-cap stocks are far more sensitive to the U.S. domestic economy than large-cap tech stocks. Russell’s new high means the market believes the U.S. economy can withstand the shocks of war and high oil prices. This signal is also positive for the crypto market, because it lowers the probability of the tail-risk chain “recession → liquidity crisis → crypto crash.”

Today’s recap: the final 24 hours of the countdown

April 21, the last full trading day before the ceasefire expires— as the market looks for a balance between the tanker-seizure incident and expectations of talks:

US stocks: S&P slightly down 0.24% to 7,109. Nasdaq ends the 13-day winning streak record. But Russell 2000 hits a historical high—money is rotating, not withdrawing.

Oil prices: WTI rebounds 6% from $82 to around $88. Driven by the tanker-seizure incident + Strait closure again. The war risk premium has been squeezed out by 25%, but the answer tomorrow decides everything.

Gold: $4,813. Standing by before the double events of the ceasefire expiration and the Warsh hearing.

Cryptocurrency: The market has shifted from “pricing geopolitical panic” to “pricing macro expectations.”

The question tomorrow is very simple: will the ceasefire be renewed?

If renewed: oil prices continue to fall, the S&P pushes toward 7,200, and BTC targets 80,000.

If not renewed: Trump said “bombs start flying,” oil prices return to 100+, and the market gives back all of last week’s gains.

Aptus Capital says “the war is already in the rearview mirror,” but sometimes what’s in the rearview mirror can suddenly drive right up ahead of you.