Market Strategy Tips (Evening of April 21 — Since April 22)

Market Analysis
Since yesterday, the market has been in an extreme volatile phase of “Trump’s reversal on Fed statements + massive震荡 in the US dollar index + expiration of Middle East ceasefire agreements + intense global asset long-short battles.” Gold initially surged violently, breaking through the $3,500 per ounce mark for the first time in history to hit a new high, then profit-taking by bulls caused a rebound in the dollar, resulting in a sharp plunge, presenting a “one-sided surge → high-level shakeout → wide-range fluctuation”震荡 pattern; the crypto market benefited from concerns over dollar creditworthiness and risk appetite recovery, leading to a unilateral rally, with Bitcoin breaking through $94,000 to reach a near seven-week high, and mainstream coins soaring across the board, driven by institutional capital inflows and short covering, showing a strong upward trend.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic of the market has shifted to the main theme of “Fed independence controversy reversal + US dollar震荡 + Middle East geopolitical risk escalation,” with intensified policy and geopolitical battles. On April 21, local time, Trump continued to criticize Fed Chair Powell, threatening to dismiss Powell and demanding immediate rate cuts, triggering concerns about the politicization of Fed monetary policy, with the dollar index plummeting over 1% intraday to a low of 97.92, a three-year low; on April 22, Trump changed tone, saying he has no intention of dismissing Powell, only asking for more proactive actions on interest rates, with the dollar index rebounding to around 99.0, with intraday volatility exceeding 1%. As a result, CME FedWatch shows the market’s probability of a rate cut in September rising to 52%, with a 76% chance of one rate cut for the year, indicating a marginal easing of policy expectations. Regarding Middle East tensions, on April 22, the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran officially expired, with no consensus reached in Islamabad negotiations, Iran explicitly refusing a second round of talks, resuming the Strait of Hormuz blockade, with US aircraft carriers on high alert and military confrontations escalating, Brent crude rebounded to $108–$110 per barrel, with concerns about stagflation warming up. US stocks also rebounded across the board, with the Dow rising over 2.6%, the Nasdaq over 2.7%, and global risk appetite temporarily recovering.
2. Gold, after reaching a historic high, experienced a震荡 plunge, with intense profit-taking and divergence between bulls and bears. International spot gold opened at $3,423 on the evening of the 21st, then continued to rise unilaterally, breaking through the $3,500/oz mark for the first time in history during Asian trading hours on the 22nd, reaching a high of $3,509.9 to set a new record; then profit-taking by bulls caused a rapid plunge, with the lowest dropping to $3,408, and currently trading at $3,449 per ounce, with a 24-hour range exceeding $100, and daily gains narrowed to 0.75%. COMEX gold futures also surged and then retreated, with a high of $3,518 and latest at $3,442. In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold Exchange’s main contract closed at 828 yuan/gram, up 0.52% intraday; gold T+D was quoted at 825.8 yuan/gram, with mainstream brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising retail prices to 1038–1039 yuan/gram, up 14 yuan/gram from the previous day. The core drivers of this round of行情: the upward side driven by Trump’s threats to intervene in the Fed causing concerns over dollar信用崩塌, the dollar index hitting a three-year low, combined with continuous central bank gold purchases and concentrated safe-haven demand in the Middle East; the downward side driven by Trump’s reversal, dollar rebound after the high, and technical indicators like RSI entering severely overbought zones after reaching new highs, with profit-taking causing technical corrections. On the资金面, the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased holdings by 2.37 tons on April 21, reaching 1058.11 tons, continuing to add; however, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued risk alerts warning of high volatility risks. Key support levels: $3,400–$3,420 (top-bottom support), strong support at $3,350–$3,380 (breakout point of this rally, dividing bulls and bears); key resistance levels: $3,480–$3,500 (historic resistance), strong resistance at $3,510 (intraday high).
3. The crypto market experienced a unilateral surge, with Bitcoin breaking through $94,000 to a near seven-week high, driven by institutional capital inflows and short covering. On the evening of April 21, Bitcoin opened at $85,051, then continued to rise unilaterally, breaking through $90,000, $92,000, and $94,000 levels, reaching a high of $94,142.5, a near seven-week high, and currently trading at $93,396, up over 7.7% in 24 hours; Ethereum also surged, reaching a high of $1,763.7, up over 11.31% in 24 hours, with mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE rising over 6%, and the total crypto market cap expanding by over $130 billion in one day. Regarding funds and on-chain data: BTC spot ETFs ended previous outflows, with a net inflow of $44.78 million on April 21, with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC continuing to increase holdings, and Grayscale’s GBTC net outflows significantly narrowed; MicroStrategy disclosed an additional purchase of 6,556 BTC, with total holdings reaching 538,200 BTC, continuously injecting incremental funds into the market. The contract market saw 108k liquidations in 24 hours, totaling $347 million, with short liquidations accounting for over 70%, and Bitcoin short liquidations alone reaching $128 million, making short covering a key driver of the rally. On-chain data shows exchange BTC net outflows exceeding 28k coins in one day, with long-term holders maintaining a 68% holding ratio, indicating very limited underlying selling pressure; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rebounded to 58, entering a neutral-optimistic zone, with market sentiment fully recovering. Key support levels: $91,000–$92,000 (intraday consolidation zone), strong support at $88,000–$90,000 (breakout point of this rally, dividing bulls and bears); key resistance levels: $94,000–$94,500 (intraday high), strong resistance at $98,000 (all-time high).
Special Reminder
Gold has completed the first震荡 shakeout after reaching a historic high, and the technical overbought correction is still needed. Coupled with Trump’s反复表态, dollar震荡, and Middle East uncertainties, high-level volatility risks are sharply increasing. Do not blindly chase highs; the $3,500+ high region faces heavy抛压, and beware of a secondary correction caused by continued profit-taking by bulls. It is recommended to operate with light positions, wait for a pullback to the $3,400–$3,420 support zone to stabilize before attempting small long positions, with strict stop-loss at $3,380, and consider taking profits on rebounds above $3,480, strictly controlling positions to avoid extreme high-level volatility risks.
The current strong rally in the crypto market has broken through previous major resistance levels, with the mid-term upward trend continuing to strengthen. However, market sentiment has entered a optimistic zone, and after a large short-term涨幅, technical corrections are needed. The risk of chasing above $94,000 has significantly increased. It is strictly forbidden to hold heavy positions in chasing highs or all-in at high levels; positions should be kept within 40%. Only after the market stabilizes at the strong support zone of $90,000–$92,000 should you consider gradually adding positions; if the price again breaks below $90,000, be alert to short-term deep corrections, promptly reduce positions to lock in profits, and prioritize avoiding high-level retracements.