🚨 Damn, the Middle East just went off the rails! The US-Iran conflict has reignited, and my risk aversion is at its peak.

On April 20th, Iran angrily condemned the US for firing on commercial ships and vowed to retaliate. The ceasefire agreement looks like it's about to fall apart, and after Wednesday, things might really turn upside down. BTC suddenly broke through $74k, WTI crude oil gapped higher by 5%, and my account's heartbeat sped up too. 😱
Let's talk about my honest opinion (pure personal view, welcome to criticize):

1️⃣ Is the ceasefire expectation completely dashed? What will happen after Wednesday?
I feel like it can still be dragged out a bit in the short term. Trump is saying "it's almost settled," but at the same time, he's making tough remarks; Iran's economy can't hold up much longer, so they might not go all out immediately. But if talks break down, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would throw everything into chaos. I’d say there’s a 70% chance it’s “talking while just throwing verbal punches,” but a black swan could come at any time, so cash is king first!

2️⃣ WTI crude oil gapped higher now—should I jump in now or take profits?
Personally, I think now is a better chance to "buy the dip"! The geopolitical premium has just started to rise, and the Strait of Hormuz tension isn’t at its peak yet. If Iran really acts, oil prices hitting $100 isn’t a dream. But I only dare to chase with light positions, set stop-losses, and never go all-in chasing highs. Wait for weekend news before deciding whether to add more.

3️⃣ BTC dropped below $74k—how should I adjust my strategy in this volatile market?
Classic risk assets are being sold off... My current strategy is “defensive counterattack”: keep positions below 40%, mainly selling high and buying low, and firmly support around $71k–$73k. Once the geopolitical situation truly unfolds (either talks succeed or collapse completely), I’ll consider going all-in again. Don’t rush to buy the dip; with such high volatility, you’re easily double-killed.

Brothers, what do you think? Do you believe the ceasefire can still be salvaged, or are you preparing for oil prices and BTC to fly together or fall together? Leave your comments and let’s discuss!
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