Caught an interesting oil market bounce yesterday. Crude prices today rebounded pretty sharply after getting absolutely hammered the day before with that 15% drop. We're talking Brent crude jumping $2.60 to sit around $97.35 a barrel, while WTI gained $3.02 to hit $97.43. Both were trying to climb back toward that $100 level everyone's watching.

The thing is, even with this rebound, there's still a ton of uncertainty hanging over oil prices today. That two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran? Nobody's really confident it's going to stick. Israel kept striking Lebanon on Wednesday, which prompted Iran to basically say it's unreasonable to push forward with peace talks. So we've got this weird situation where markets are hoping for de-escalation, but the reality on the ground looks messier.

The Strait of Hormuz is the key wildcard here. That waterway moves about 20% of global oil supply - we're talking exports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar all flowing through there. If something disrupts that corridor, oil prices today and tomorrow would spike fast. And right now, there's genuine risk. Iran's been targeting sites even after the ceasefire supposedly kicked in, including a Saudi pipeline that's supposed to be an alternative route. Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE all reported missile and drone attacks too.

What's interesting is that the market had priced in a pretty optimistic scenario - assuming the ceasefire would hold and the Strait would reopen smoothly. That's why we saw WTI crater with its sharpest drop since April 2020. But now traders are recalibrating. The consensus seems to be shifting toward a structurally higher price environment. Macquarie's base case has Brent finding support around $85-90, then gradually grinding higher toward $110 as flows normalize. That assumes things actually de-escalate though.

If tensions stay elevated? Oil prices today could stay volatile and keep pushing upward. Any sustained Middle East conflict, especially around the Strait, keeps supply tight and inflation pressures building globally. One analyst I saw quoted said even a peace deal might not solve this - Iran could use the Strait as a leverage point going forward, which means the market will keep pricing in that risk premium.

So yeah, watching how this plays out is crucial for energy markets and honestly for inflation expectations more broadly. The ceasefire holding or breaking is going to be the main driver for oil prices today and the weeks ahead.