I'm monitoring the movement of Polymarket here, and the probability of the Orlando Magic making the playoffs has dropped to 39% in 24 hours, a pretty significant decline. The Magic lost to the Philadelphia 76ers 109 to 97 yesterday, and tomorrow they have a decisive game against the Charlotte Hornets to try to secure their spot in the East.

But what’s also moving the market is the situation with LaMelo Ball. The guy was fined $35,000 for a flagrant foul level 2 against Bam Adebayo in the game against the Miami Heat, and he also received another $25,000 fine for inappropriate comments in the post-game interview. Total fines amount to $60,000, but at least he wasn’t suspended.

The interesting point is to see how these NBA details affect prediction markets. People are selling the Magic’s chances with this bad streak, and tomorrow there could be more movement depending on the result. It’s worth keeping an eye on whether the probability keeps falling or stabilizes.