I just reviewed the latest movements in gold, and there’s something truly worth analyzing here. The spot price in London hit record highs of $4,420 per ounce a few months ago, with a nearly 68% jump this year. But the interesting part isn’t just that gold is rising, it’s what’s happening behind the scenes in the precious metals market.

What we’re seeing is deeper than a simple commodities rally. Global central banks are accumulating gold like never before. China has been buying for eleven consecutive months, accumulating over 200 tons. Poland, Kazakhstan, other emerging markets are doing the same. In the second quarter of last year, central banks bought a net 182 tons. It’s the tenth consecutive quarter of accumulation. This is no coincidence.

Robin Brooks, who was a currency strategist at Goldman Sachs, has an interesting point. He says this isn’t just a traditional gold rally, but the restart of the “currency devaluation trade.” And he’s right. Not only are gold and silver rising, but currencies like the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona are starting to move in tandem with metals. The correlation of the Swiss franc with gold reached 0.73. Twenty years ago, that was unthinkable.

The dollar appears strong because the yen is in free fall, but in reality, the trade-weighted dollar index has fallen 6% from its peak this year. Overall purchasing power is eroding. And with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, with expectations of another 75-100 basis points of cuts in 2026, gold becomes increasingly attractive as a store of value.

Geopolitical tensions also play a role. Venezuela, the Black Sea, all that adds a safe-haven premium to gold, typically 5-8% during conflicts. But what catches my attention most is how this diverges completely from Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is in another world. A few months ago, it was around $88,000, now it’s at $75,640, with just a 15% annual gain. Gold has risen 68%. While gold is driven by central banks and institutional investors seeking refuge, Bitcoin is more tied to tech stock behavior. Its correlation with the Nasdaq is 0.5, but with gold, just 0.2. The yen carry trade helps gold, but has limited impact on crypto. These are entirely different dynamics now.

Goldman Sachs expects gold to keep rising, with a target of $4,900 per ounce in 2026 and potentially up to $5,000 if cuts exceed expectations. UBS is more cautious, warning that the RSI has entered overbought territory and a short-term technical correction could occur. Citigroup believes we’re facing structural changes in the gold market — it’s not just inflation, but also geopolitics and pressure on countries’ balance sheets.

What’s fascinating is that China’s central bank gold reserves account for only 6.7% of its total reserves, while developed European and American countries hold over 70%. There’s still plenty of room for accumulation. With U.S. debt at $36 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124%, the floor for the currency devaluation trade is solid long-term.

This isn’t just a short-term trend. It’s a re-evaluation of what wealth means in 2026. Gold and Bitcoin represent different visions of the same problem: trust in current monetary systems.