Evening Market Outlook

The Bitcoin hourly timeframe is about to see a triangle breakout. Only with a valid breakout and a firm hold above the 74,929 resistance level will there be a chance to probe the needle-like swing high near 75,500 indicated by the red arrow. As long as the price stays above 74,929, the rebound trend will continue; however, if it fails to break through the key resistance at 76,237, the current upward move is only defined as a rebound. Only after successfully breaking above 76,237 can a true trend-based rally be considered to have begun, which would then challenge 77,573 and the previous high of 78,283.

Do not assume a reversal just because price is rising, nor panic about a crash just because price is falling. Rationally treating price fluctuations within a range is the core.

The white arrow below marks the 73,537 level, which has completed 4 successful retests and remains well-supported. After the price previously retested and stabilized at this level, it once delivered a strong surge up to 78,283. With support at 73,537 again this time, based on historical structure projection, this rebound still has a high probability of probing the previous high of 78,283:

• If 78,283 is broken, the rally will continue;

• If the rebound stalls near 78,283, it will most likely pull back to test the 73,537 support;

• Preconditions: To challenge 78,283, the price must first break through the 76,237 resistance.

Practical Strategy

• Enter long on a volume-backed breakout of 75,263, chase long on the right side, and use a strict stop-loss;

• Enter short if price breaks down below 74,589 with volume and the subsequent rebound cannot reclaim the level, chase short on the right side, and use a strict stop-loss.

Range Targets

• Hourly timeframe: Break and hold above 75,263; look for 76,260–77,412. If you cannot hold above 75,263, the rebound is invalid;

• 4-hour timeframe: Break down below 74,483; look for 73,677–72,019.

4-Hour Structure Interpretation

Even though the 4-hour timeframe has fallen below the Fibonacci 78.6 strong support, it is protected by the 61.8 support level plus the “red arrow yellow bullish trendline double-support shield.” Unless there are major bad-news catalysts, it is difficult for that level to be broken further downward.
For the 4-hour timeframe to continue to extend the selloff, it must break below the 61.8 support level; only then can you look toward the 50 level and the 38.2 level.
If the price rebounds and holds above the 78.6 level, the 4-hour rally will continue. If it breaks the previous high, new highs may be within reach—pay close attention to whether volume can align and support the move.