Why do I think $BTC 60k isn't the bottom of this bear market???

From two perspectives, the reasons lie in both time and space.
From the time dimension, historically, each bear market lasts a year; this drop of six months doesn't seem to fit the usual pattern. According to Bitcoin's four-year cycle, there is a one-year bear market, one year of bull turning to bear, and two years of bull market.
From the space dimension, this round of bear market has only fallen 50%, far less than the 75% drop in the previous bear market, which also doesn't conform to the pattern. In each previous bear market, BTC's high-level decline has been over 70%. Although the decline in each bear market has been decreasing, this round can't directly shrink from 75% to 50%, at most to 65%.
I believe the upcoming trend is very likely to repeat what happened in January this year, where at the end of the consolidation phase, there was a false breakout, leading people to mistakenly think the bottom had been reached and a rebound was underway, only to turn downward afterward, starting a new decline. This false breakout is very likely caused by positive news from the successful ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran, creating a false breakout trap to lure more retail investors chasing the rally, and then trapping a large number of retail investors who bought in.