Why do I think that $BTC 6 is not the bottom of this bear market???

From two perspectives, the reasons are that there is not enough time and space.
From the perspective of time, historically, every bear market has lasted a year. This time, dropping for just half a year to reach the bottom? It does not align with past patterns. According to Bitcoin's four-year cycle, there is one year of bear market, one year of transition from bear to bull, and two years of bull market.
From the perspective of space, this bear market has only dropped by 50%, which is much less than the previous bear market's drop of 75%, and it also does not conform to the pattern. The drop in BTC's high during each bear market has been over 70%. Although the drop in each bear market is shrinking, this time it cannot directly reduce from 75% to 50%, at most it can shrink to 65%.
I believe that the upcoming trend is very likely to replay January of this year, where at the end of the consolidation period there will be a false breakout, leading people to mistakenly think that it has bottomed out and rebounded, only to then turn downwards and initiate a new round of decline. This false breakout is very likely to be caused by favorable news from successful negotiations between the United States and Iran leading to a ceasefire, creating a false breakout to attract more buyers, and then trapping a large number of retail investors who chased the rise.
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