#布伦特原油持续走强 Monday's opening surged by 7%! The Strait of Hormuz is again blocked, and oil prices have returned to the "hundred-dollar era" again?

The "powder keg" of geopolitical tensions has exploded the Monday crude oil market.
On Monday (April 20), during the Asian early trading session, international oil prices surged sharply! Driven by the rapid escalation of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend, WTI crude and Brent crude jumped by about 7% right at the open. WTI briefly broke above $89 per barrel, and Brent pushed toward the $97 mark. The market’s nerves, which had just started to settle, were tightened again by the sounds of cannon fire in the Strait of Hormuz.

01 48 Hours of Weekend Shock: From "Near Agreement" to "Maritime Fire"
Just last Friday, the market was still immersed in optimistic expectations that the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement, and oil prices had even fallen back somewhat. But the weekend’s storyline took a 180-degree turn—two black swan events directly ignited today’s opening.
1. Fighting at sea: US forces intercepted and opened fire on an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, then boarded it to take control. Iran condemned it as "maritime piracy" and vowed retaliation.
2. The throat is sealed: In response, Iran announced it would re-block the Strait of Hormuz. This "lifeline" for global oil transportation has been cut off, meaning there is a risk of disruption to an estimated 2.1 million barrels of daily crude oil supply.
Market sentiment instantly shifted from "luck" to "panic." Traders had no choice but to reprice for the worst-case supply interruption scenario, making a gap-up at the open in oil prices inevitable.

02 Key Time Point: Wednesday's "Day of Judgment"
April 22 (this Wednesday) is the day the current interim US-Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement expires. Today’s dramatic oil price swings are, in essence, a pre-positioning on the situation on Wednesday.
If talks fail: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue, and oil prices are very likely to break through the psychological level of $100 per barrel, even challenging the $105–$115 range projected by institutions.
If a miracle happens: If there is a turnaround before Wednesday, oil prices will face a quick pullback after the release of sentiment.
At present, Iran’s stance is extremely hardline. It has clearly said, "As long as the maritime blockade continues, there will be no negotiations." With diplomatic mediation, there is less than 48 hours left.

03 Chain Reaction: A "Major Earthquake" in Global Assets
The surge in oil prices is never solitary—it triggers a chain reaction across global capital markets:
Flight-to-safety asset divergence: Gold and silver did not surge on the conflict; instead, they pulled back, indicating that market liquidity may be shifting from precious metals to crude oil.
Stock market pressure: US stock index futures all opened lower across the board. Concerns about inflation sparked by rising energy costs suppressed risk appetite.

04 Domestic Oil Price Impact: Next Round of Adjustment Is "As Good as Settled"
For domestic motorists, this surge in international oil prices almost means the next refined oil price adjustment window (April 28) will be increased—nearly a foregone conclusion.
Brent crude is already pressing toward the $100 mark. If the geopolitical situation cannot be eased within the next week, the price of domestic 92-octane gasoline will most likely return to the "8-yuan era." For logistics transport and private car commuting, this is undoubtedly a very real increase in expenses.

05 Outlook: Is It a Sentiment Market or a Fundamentals Market?
In the short term, this is a typical "sentiment-driven pricing" game. The direction of oil prices depends entirely on the navigability status of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Any rumors about "talks restarting" or "the strait being reopened" could trigger violent swings in the market.
In the medium to long term, inventories are key. Data shows that global visible total crude oil inventories have fallen significantly compared with before the conflict—equivalent to having consumed nearly half of the 2025 cumulative inventory. This means the supply side is truly facing substantive tightness, not just speculation.
Today’s 7% jump in oil prices is a concentrated release of the geopolitical risk premium. For ordinary investors and consumers, buckle up before this Wednesday (April 22). The gunfire in the Middle East is not only about international news—it directly links to your gas tank and your wallet.