Caught the wheat complex rally on Thursday - pretty solid across the board. Chicago SRW was up 13-15 cents, Kansas City HRW jumped 14-15.5 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat gained 7-8 cents. Some short covering happening with cold weather hitting parts of Russia's winter crop, which definitely helped the move.

What caught my eye was the export data. USDA reported 488K MT sold in the week ending Feb 5 - up 30% from the previous week, though still running about 14% below last year. Philippines led the buying with 127K MT. Mexico and Indonesia also picking up wheat stocks at decent volumes.

On the supply side, EU wheat crop estimates just got trimmed. Expana cut their 2026/27 forecast to 128.3 MMT, down 0.5 MMT from last month. Export projections for 2025/26 also came down 1.2 MMT to 27.6 MMT. Heavy rain expected in the Southeast over the next week could add more volatility to the picture.