Monday Morning Jingyi Operation Silk Dew Analysis

1. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires on April 22, and the risk of negotiations breaking down is increasing; expectations of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have driven up oil prices and U.S. inflation.

2. The Federal Reserve has issued hawkish statements; expectations for rate cuts have been reduced to 1 time and pushed to after September, strengthening the U.S. dollar, tightening liquidity, and suppressing risk assets. Safe-haven funds are flowing into U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar; capital is flowing out of the crypto market, and with a bull liquidation cascade, prices fall.

3. From a technical structure perspective, the daily chart has broken below the 75,000 support level; moving averages are aligned bearishly; the MACD death cross has expanded in volume, confirming that a downtrend is established; the 4-hour rebound is weak, pressured by moving averages, the downward channel has opened, with volume decreasing during selloffs and expanding during rises.

Trading recommendation: Short on the 74,700-75,300 range under pressure; targets 73,000-72,500; if the level is broken, watch the 70,000 psychological level.

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