⚠️ WARNING ABOUT THIS

Everyone talks about geopolitical tensions and physical wars, but there is a major war that no one discusses and that could have a significant impact on the markets:
The chip war.
What is happening? Why is it so important? How does it affect markets and crypto? Let me explain:
What is happening?
Chips are the brains of everything we use: phones, cars, computers, appliances… and now Artificial Intelligence.
About three months ago, the U.S. decided to impose a (tariff) of 25% on certain advanced chips coming from abroad, especially those linked to AI. This was called Phase 1.
But there is an important nuance: this tariff does not affect all chips, only a very specific and strategic category, and it also includes exceptions to avoid hindering internal technological development.
Now comes the interesting part. The White House has made it clear that this is just the beginning.
Phase 2 is on the table, but it has not yet been decided, approved, or signed.
What does exist is a proposal: after trade negotiations, much broader tariffs could be imposed on chips, machinery, and related products, with “significant” rates, although without concrete details or a confirmed date.
Phase 2 could be revealed and approved at any moment.
Why is it so important?
The U.S. wants to reduce dependence on Asia (like Taiwan and China).
The United States consumes a huge amount of chips but does not produce enough, making it vulnerable to external disruptions.
The strategy is clear: use tariffs as leverage to encourage tech companies to manufacture domestically.
The goal is that, if tomorrow there is a global or local conflict, the U.S. will not depend on anyone for the key components of the 21st century.
And this is important because depending on how everything unfolds, markets could be affected.
How would it impact markets and crypto?
In the short term, Phase 1 had a limited impact because it affected a very specific niche. In fact, many companies have hardly noticed any significant changes in their forecasts.
But the market doesn’t move only based on what has already happened… but on what could happen.
If a more aggressive Phase 2 arrives, the impact will depend entirely on the actual scope of the measures.
It’s not the same to slightly expand tariffs as to apply them massively across the entire tech supply chain.
If the measures are moderate, the impact would be limited and more sector-specific: mainly affecting tech companies, chip manufacturers, and import-dependent firms.
This should be the most likely scenario. Where nothing very significant happens for the markets or excessive fear arises.
But if the measures are aggressive, then the scenario changes:
- Production costs increase (especially in technology), reducing profit margins
- Global supply chains are strained, causing inefficiencies and delays
- Risks of trade retaliation between countries emerge
And, above all, uncertainty increases, which is what really moves the markets.
In fact, we have already seen that markets react very sensitively to tariff policies.
When there is more trade pressure, volatility increases, and in the short term, risk assets like crypto can decline.
The most dangerous scenario would be this: if the U.S. implements aggressive measures that could harm the markets in the short term.
The coming weeks and months are crucial.
For now, there is no need to worry. Just understand the full context (both negative and positive scenarios) and wait for upcoming announcements.
We will be watching closely to see what measures are taken in Phase 2 and whether everything escalates or remains just a threat.
What is clear is that there is a technological war over who will dominate more, whether the United States or China.
And watch out, this is not all.
China could trigger the next black swan in the markets and cause huge damage to the U.S. and Europe. If there is interest, I will post a detailed explanation tomorrow.