#Gate13周年 BTC Evening Viewpoint | The main force’s script is already written—don’t get shaken around by fake moves

Brothers, let’s get straight to the point:

This wave of Bitcoin pulling up from the lows has already risen quite a bit on the hourly timeframe—it's already been pushed to 74,920 at the high. But “after the rise, it falls”? It’s not that simple.
Right now, the price is bouncing back and forth within the small range of 74,840 - 74,150, a classic “grinding market.”

If you’re waiting for a pullback, there’s only one condition:
On the hourly timeframe, the real body must break below 74,150, and the rebound can’t get back up—only then will the pullback be considered to have truly started.
First look at the support zone below: 73,790 - 73,290. If it can’t hold, then look at 72,150.
Also pay attention: that earlier, relatively obvious bullish candle—if it gets swallowed by a bearish candle by more than half, then the pullback will play out smoothly; otherwise, it’s just a light step on the gas and the price keeps jumping higher.
What if it doesn’t break below 74,150?
Then it will keep ranging within this zone. As it ranges and ranges, the shorts keep building up—it's very possible the main force first pulls it up a bit, testing around 75,500, blowing up the shorts, and then turning around to deliver the pullback.
This kind of “fake breakout, real harvest” script has been seen way too many times.

What to do on the right side?

· Break out with volume above 74,700 and hold → chase longs on the right side, targeting 75,500 - 76,550
· Break down with volume below 74,130, and the rebound can’t be reclaimed → chase shorts on the right side, eat the pullback—no need to hold grudges

4-hour timeframe:
Break below 74,130 → look down to 73,100 - 72,000

The daily timeframe is the main battlefield
The daily timeframe is the main battlefield
Bitcoin’s daily has already broken through the previous descending pressure line, and for 3 consecutive days the closing prices have closed above it—also, the box/range has been punched through.
The fast and slow MACD lines have both returned above the zero axis—bulls are controlling it, and a pullback is an opportunity to go long hard.
I said before: if the daily can hold above 74,000 - 74,500, this isn’t a rebound—it’s a reversal.
Next targets: 76,300 and 79,600

One-sentence summary:
Go long as the main direction; shorts only take the pullback—don’t get greedy. If the hourly timeframe doesn’t break below 74,150, you don’t even have the qualification to be bearish.
Keep your stop-loss in place—only by staying alive do you have the right to watch the next script
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