Pre-market: Nasdaq futures up 1.07%, Nike down 11.7%

As the market grows increasingly optimistic that the Middle East war is nearing its end, stock markets continued to rise on Wednesday (April 1). Brent crude oil briefly fell below $100 per barrel, and bonds also climbed. The U.S. dollar posted its biggest weekly decline.

As of the time of writing, Dow Jones index futures were up 0.86%, S&P 500 index futures gained 0.83%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 1.07%.

European equities surged. Traders leaned into buying after remarks by Trump suggesting the U.S. could withdraw from the Iran conflict soon. The rally was fairly broad: with the exception of the energy sector, nearly all other sectors in Europe logged gains. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 2.2%. Industrials, which are sensitive to energy prices, jumped sharply; among them, Siemens Energy rocketed 8.1%, lifting Germany’s DAX index 2.8%.

Fueled by gains in Asian and European semiconductor stocks, Nasdaq index futures, which have a high technology weighting, rose 1.1%.

Chip stocks extended their rebound in pre-market trading. Shares such as SanDisk and Micron Technology rose more than 2%. Nike, however, plunged more than 11% on dim prospects. Mining stocks—including AngloGold Ashanti Plc and Newmont—rose after gold climbed for a fourth consecutive trading day, breaking above $4,700.

Asian stock markets rose across the board. MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific equity index excluding Japan rose 4.7%, ending the prior four-day slide and recording its biggest single-day gain since November 2022. South Korea’s Kospi index ended its decline and surged 8.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 5.2%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 2.2%; and China’s Shanghai Composite index rose 1.5%.

A rebound in risk appetite pushed chip stocks higher—an area long closely tied to the AI boom. Samsung Electronics rose 10%, and SK hynix climbed 11%. In Tokyo, Kioxia Holdings jumped 14%; TSMC rose 5.4%.

Trump expected to end the Iran war

Market sentiment was driven by remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said he expects the U.S. to end its war with Iran within the next two to three weeks. Rodrigo Catril, a foreign-exchange strategy strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney, said: “In terms of what a ceasefire means, and what peace means, the two sides are still far apart. But the market is actively looking at the fact that at least they are talking.”

He said on a podcast: “At least from the perspective of signaling—or, in other words, expressing a willingness to end the conflict—this is a positive sign.” As for whether a compromise can be reached, that remains to be seen. “While all of this is happening, both sides’ attacks are still continuing.”

Bloomberg macro strategist Ven Ram said: “A full rebound in the stock market is the typical behavior of a market that has been starved of good news for a long time—reacting quickly to a single flicker of hope. But what traders need to focus on is oil prices, not news headlines, because the former is the real indicator of the pressures the global economy is facing.”

Oil falls back below $100

Despite the Strait of Hormuz still being largely closed, and missile and drone attacks in the Gulf region continuing, Brent crude oil once dropped 5.4%, slipping below the $100 mark, before narrowing its losses. May-delivery WTI crude futures fell 3.8% to $97.57 per barrel. Thomas Mathews of Capital Economics said: “Hopes for easing have boosted the market, but we believe that even if the war ends quickly, its impact in many respects will still persist.”

Even if the war truly can end within the timeframe Trump has set, and oil shipments resume via passage through the Strait of Hormuz, it will still take time for flow to return to normal—especially given that some energy facilities have been damaged in the conflict. Trump’s team has also recently suggested that ending the war may not necessarily require reopening that waterway, which carries roughly 20% of global crude oil transport.

Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategy strategist at Swiss private bank J Safra Sarasin, said: “Since the outbreak of the conflict, the correlation between Brent oil prices and global equities has been unusually strong. This suggests that for equities to return to prior highs, the Strait of Hormuz must reopen—and oil prices need to fall significantly. Announcing that everything is back to normal now is probably too early.”

Trump to deliver a national address

Trump will deliver remarks at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, providing “important updates” on the Iran issue. He said Iran may still reach an agreement with the U.S. However, he added that agreeing with Tehran is not a prerequisite for ending the war.

Although the UAE could join the conflict and is pushing for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing it to take part in military action to open the Strait of Hormuz by force, the market has not paid attention and has continued to rise. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said that once the war ends, Washington will have to reassess its relationship with NATO.

White House spokesperson Leavitt said on the X platform that Trump will deliver a national address at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, providing the latest progress on the Iran issue.

Remi Olu-Pitan, Head of Multi-Asset Growth and Income at Schroders, said: “What we’re seeing now is a wave of relief-driven rebound, and as more information comes out, the market may also turn—so we need to stay cautious here. Volatility is still high, and the market remains fragile.”

Trump called on other countries to take over the Strait of Hormuz, expressing his dissatisfaction that this monthslong war has not been resolved for so long—his latest signal that he is trying to get out of the conflict as oil and gas prices soar. The UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force.

Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG Markets, said: “I expect the market to be even more volatile over the next few days. Until we can see how this crisis is evolving, the market may swing back and forth between gains and losses for several trading sessions. This is more likely just a temporary breather, rather than a final turning point that changes the situation.”

Central banks cut back on tightening bets

As traders pared back their bets on further monetary-policy tightening, European bonds led the rally across global bond markets. UK 2-year government bond yields fell 11 basis points to 4.29%; euro zone government bond yields also dropped sharply. Germany’s 10-year government bond yields fell 7.3 basis points to 2.939%; Italy’s 10-year yields fell 15 basis points to 3.765%; and France’s 10-year yields fell 10.6 basis points to 3.622%.

U.S. short-end yields fell more than long-end yields, indicating that the market’s worries about high oil prices driving inflation have eased somewhat. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 3.5 basis points to 3.763%; the 10-year yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.284%; and the 30-year yield fell 0.9 basis points to 4.883%.

The dollar against a basket of currencies slid to a one-week low. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.4% to 99.534. Falling oil prices and improving risk appetite are both negative for the dollar because the U.S. is a net oil exporter and the dollar is often viewed as a safe-haven currency.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probabilities implied by federal funds rate futures currently show that the chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at its two-day meeting ending July 29 is 17.9%, versus just 7.5% the day before. Even so, swap-market pricing indicates that the probability of rate cuts before April next year is only slightly higher than a coin flip.

Bitcoin rose another 1.2% to $68,981.84. Rachael Lucas of BTC Markets said that because seasonal tailwinds failed to materialize, sentiment in the Bitcoin market appears cautious. She said that on Wednesday, Bitcoin traded around $68,000 and remained below the $70,000 to $72,000 range needed to build stronger confidence in the market.

Gold prices extended their advance and reclaimed the $4,700 level. In early trading, New York gold futures rose 1.6% to $4,752.70 and were on track to post a weekly gain of more than 4%. A Sucden Financial analyst said: “This move indicates that gold is starting to rebuild upward momentum, although the gains remain relatively moderate, and it is still closely tied to both FX and oil-price moves.”

Top economists warn: Make sure to stay away from the big U.S. stock indexes!

Top economist Mohamed El-Erian, former Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO, issued a warning to bargain hunters. He said that as the Iran war enters its second month, he is currently avoiding stocks—especially broad market index funds.

He pointed to a chain of economic consequences triggered by high oil prices and said the market now must deal with a risk that “a demand shock” will spread throughout the economy.

He said: “This is another trigger point for the global economy. My investment strategy has shifted from ‘reducing risk’ to ‘fully seeking safety.’ Even though a few individual stocks look quite attractive, at this stage, I would never step in to buy broad market indexes.”

He added that even considering the current drawdown, investors may still be pricing economic risks stemming from the Iran war too low.

Wall Street’s “oracle”: U.S. stocks usually hit bottom at the beginning of a conflict

Wall Street’s well-known strategist Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, sent investors a positive signal—despite uncertainty over how long the military conflict will last, historical experience suggests that the stock market’s bottom typically forms at the start of a war, not at the end.

In a recent research report, Lee reviewed seven major military conflicts since 1900. The research found that equity assets tend to bottom and rebound shortly after a conflict erupts. He explained that this is because investors often “price in the risk of the risk”—quickly pricing negative expectations in a very short period of time.

The data shows that market bottoms usually occur in the first 10% of the total duration of a war. He said: “Looking ahead to April, we think the market is much closer to the real bottom than the pessimists expect.” He is confident that after a sharp selloff, a “V-shaped reversal” often follows because the U.S. economy is fully capable of handling the macro challenges at hand.

JPMorgan and Goldman dissect the truth behind the big rally in U.S. stocks: It’s short-squeeze, not a sentiment reversal.

After both sides of the U.S.-Iran conflict sent signals of easing, the S&P 500 surged 2.9% on Tuesday, posting its biggest single-day gain since last May.

However, trading desks at large Wall Street institutions said that heading into quarter-end, the stock market’s positioning—previously extremely bearish—was the main driver behind Tuesday’s sharp rebound, rather than investors’ shift in sentiment about the outlook for the Middle East war.

Traders at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan said Tuesday’s rise in U.S. stocks was mainly due to a short squeeze, and the sudden rebound was more the result of various market participants closing short positions. It was reported that hedge funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) had been aggressively shorting stocks prior to this.

These banks’ trading desks also forecast that pension funds would conduct large-scale reallocation at month-end, shifting to buying stocks, while the negative-gamma pressure held by options traders would gradually fade as Tuesday’s options expired, providing additional upside momentum for the market.

Focus stocks

U.S. gold stocks continued to rise in pre-market trading. Harmony Gold rose more than 6%, Newmont Mining rose more than 4%, and EGUAR mining rose nearly 4%.

Oil companies were lower in pre-market trading. Exxon Mobil fell 3.1%, Chevron dropped 2.6%, and ConocoPhillips fell 2.6%.

Nike was down 11.7% in pre-market trading, while revenue fell 3%! Greater China was down 10%.

Hirilvy Metal Mining was up over 2% in pre-market trading. It hit a historical high during the year, and its share price has risen 3.69x compared with the start of 2025.

VCX surged more than 12% pre-market. The IPO of the three U.S. “super unicorns” is on the line. VCX is a publicly traded venture capital fund launched by Fundrise, and since it listed on the NYSE on March 19, 2026, it has heavily weighted shares in popular tech companies including SpaceX and OpenAI.

ArcelorMittal rose 3% pre-market. It plans to restart French blast furnaces and is expected to restore full production capacity in the second half of the year.

Ferrari was up another 2.3% pre-market. Jefferies upgraded its rating to “Buy” and raised its target price to $400.

Faraday Future was up more than 9% at one point pre-market, with net assets turning positive and EAI robotics business shipping exceeding its target.

Miniso was up more than 2% pre-market. Its TOP TOY unit refiled with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

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责任编辑：郭明煜