ETH this wave of retracement looks quite frightening, but it might actually be an opportunity.

This morning when I was checking the market, I almost threw my phone — the four-hour chart of ETH showing that dive, from 3450 down directly to 3194. I initially thought it would be a narrow range fluctuation, but the Fed’s combo punch last night completely disrupted expectations. The 25 basis point rate cut was in line with market expectations, but Powell’s subsequent remark that "future rate cuts will be more cautious" was like a cold shower on the bulls.

Recalling the 11th, right after the rate cut news was announced, ETH skyrocketed from 3324 to 3667, nearly 8% gain in 24 hours. At that time, all groups were shouting "bull run returning," but now it looks more like the bulls' last celebration. The data doesn’t lie: yesterday, long positions above 3500 were liquidated with over $60 million in funds. Once the news is兑现, the good news is exhausted, and this logic has been proven many times.

The candlestick pattern is currently stuck in the 3150-3200 range for tug-of-war. RSI has fallen to 47, and KDJ is starting to diverge downward. Short-term selling pressure has not fully released yet. But I think this is not a systemic risk, purely sentiment-driven. Look at those whale addresses on-chain; today, they increased their holdings by 23,000 ETH below 3200, indicating that smart money is quietly positioning.

On a larger scale, the Fed's stance of ending QT remains unchanged, and the broad direction of liquidity easing is still clear; on a smaller scale, ETH’s protocol upgrade expectations have not disappointed either. This adjustment seems more like the main players cleaning out floating positions rather than a trend reversal signal.

Pay close attention to the 3100 level — it’s the support of the 50-day moving average. Holding this level, there’s a high probability of a recovery between 3100 and 3400; if it breaks below, the next support is around 3000, but I think the chance of a breakdown is low. After all, the USDT premium rate is only 0.3%, and the stablecoin pool is still healthy; there are no signs of market liquidity drying up.

At times like this, panic often is the other side of opportunity. If you believe in the long-term logic of the crypto market, this current position might be worth paying attention to. Of course, all operations should incorporate proper risk management, and don’t put all your eggs in one basket.