I. Market Overview

Based on the past 14 days and the most recent 48 hours of candlestick data, the current market price of ETH is 3027.8 (taken from the latest 1-hour candlestick and daily closing price). Overall, ETH has experienced increased volatility recently, with prices falling significantly from their highs. In the last two daily candles, ETH price gradually dropped from a high of 3193.33 to 3033.5, then dipped to a low of 3012.58, closing overall at 3027.8. In the recent 24 hours, trading volume has decreased, and today’s candlestick shows a lower shadow, indicating some buying support but continued market hesitation. From the trading volume perspective, daily data previously saw high spikes around 2799.07, such as 761,680, but in the past two days, volume has stayed at 73,882, showing less activity than at previous peaks, reflecting a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Recently, market sentiment has been noticeably affected by news. Both overall analyst opinions and mainstream media reports indicate that there is considerable division and uncertainty in the market, with intensified long-short battles. Some major funds are making small exits, and selling pressure has not been fully absorbed.

II. Technical Analysis
Based on 14-day daily and 48-hour hourly candlestick data, ETH price has quickly retraced from its recent high of 3193.33 (from the daily high prior to December 5). The current short-term trend shows weak, choppy movement, with a key support level at 3012.58 (latest daily low), and a stronger support zone between 2983.08 and 2995 (daily low and recent hourly retracement gap). In terms of resistance, short-term focus should be on 3033.5 (recent high on current hourly and daily candles), with stronger resistance at the 3150-3160 area (multiple dense highs on daily and hourly charts). A breakout above this could see a test of the previous high at 3193.33. From a trend perspective, after repeated oscillations around 3150, ETH has pulled back, forming a descending channel in the technical structure. On the hourly chart, the last 5 candlesticks showed “gap down and rally” but closed back below the average line, indicating weak rebound and strong selling pressure. In terms of volume, the short-term peak was around 31,788 (e.g., within one hour at 3038.49), then dropped to 1,279, indicating weakening buying support.

III. News and Policy Interpretation
On the news front, policy updates have been relatively calm, with no new policies in the last 24 hours. Regarding news impact, after the December 5 report on “Ethereum ETF net outflow of $41.5 million, 3400-4800 as key resistance zone,” the candlestick quickly dropped, closely matching the timing of the news. Additionally, related news mentioned that mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum collectively fell, which is consistent with ETH’s recent sharp retracement from its high. As for future targets, some analysts expect ETH to challenge 3700 or higher, but based on the past two days’ price action and candlestick performance, market confidence has been shaken and the actual trend has not met optimistic expectations. The listing of new assets on Coinbase has not provided a direct boost to the ETH market, nor has there been any observed price correlation. There have been no major policy changes in the past month, and the overall regulatory environment remains neutral, not driving short-term prices.

IV. Consolidated Analyst Views
1. Excerpts from analysts’ accurate opinions:
“It would be best if ETH can stabilize around 3157. There is still some selling pressure that needs to be absorbed, which could be done in about 1-2 weeks if quick. After that, keep watching. If you haven’t bound yet, do it quickly...”
Looking at the candlestick chart, ETH has repeatedly failed to hold the 3150-3160 range and has clearly broken down, so the consolidation zone predicted by the analyst did not materialize, and the actual market performance has been weak.

2. Another analyst’s view:
“3038-2995 TP: 3095-3160-3230 SL: 2953 #ETH挂单日内有效。” ”
From actual price action, ETH is currently lingering at the lower edge of this range, and short-term risks are high. If following the above order setup, the stop-loss point (2953) is near.

3. “For BTC short-term retracement, first focus on the key support at 90800... For those holding ETH, just watch how BTC moves; no need to be aggressive.”
Although this does not directly reference ETH’s specific price, it implies ETH is highly correlated with BTC and advises a wait-and-see approach rather than aggressive moves.

V. Future Trend Forecast and Trading Suggestions
Based on the above candlestick analysis and market sentiment, ETH is expected to remain in a weak, choppy range in the short term. If the 3020-3012 level is lost, look for further downside to 2983-2953 (candlestick lows and analyst stop-loss area), with strong support around 2799 (previous dense trading zone). If bulls can hold above 3020, there’s potential to rebound and test 3033, 3050, and 3095; a strong breakout could then target the 3150-3160 resistance area. Trading suggestions: Given the obvious resistance and selling pressure, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and not to chase the rally aggressively. If ETH stabilizes above 3020-3012, a small position long can be considered, with stop-loss not below 2953 (based on analyst advice and candlestick lows). Aggressive longs should gradually reduce positions above 3095. If 2983-2953 is breached, stop-loss should be triggered immediately to avoid risk.

VI. Risk Warning
ETH is currently under significant downward pressure, with short-term volatility intensifying. The 14-day daily high-low range has exceeded 1,500 points, and trading volume has dropped sharply after peaking, indicating high market risk. If the 3020 support line is lost, the decline could accelerate. Always set stop-losses when trading, and do not take heavy positions or chase rallies. Pay close attention to the key price levels: 2953, 2983, and 3020. Always be on guard for sudden shifts in market sentiment and unexpected events that could trigger extreme volatility. Overall, ETH should be approached defensively for now, with a focus on preventing systemic risk from a breakdown in support. Investors are advised to remain calm, closely monitor price and volume changes, and strictly follow trading discipline.