This recent surge in Bitcoin from 84,000 to around 93,000—is it just a flash in the pan or a real reversal?

Let’s look at the data first: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has soared to 80% in the futures market, the US dollar has fallen for nine consecutive days, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is steady at 4.1%. The macro environment is indeed supportive—expectations of Fed rate cuts are heating up and the US dollar is weakening, so risk assets should rise.

But there’s a hidden variable that’s easy to overlook: Powell will step down in May 2026, and Trump’s team will nominate his successor early next year. The frontrunner now is Kevin Hassett, with Waller and Bowman also in the candidate pool. Although the new chair won’t affect voting rights in the short term, the market is already betting—Hassett is dovish, so if he takes office, the dollar may continue to weaken and be favorable for the crypto world; if a hawk like Waller takes over, yields could rise and crypto assets would come under pressure.

Simply put, the current price reflects not only the immediate rate cut expectations but also an early pricing in of the 2026 policy direction. This is the so-called “shadow effect”: Powell is still at the helm, but traders are already voting for his successor through fluctuations in the dollar and yields.

The real driver of this rebound is still “rate trading,” not “personality trading.” In the short term, just focus on three points: the CME rate cut probability tool, capital flows in and out of crypto ETFs, and whether there are any new developments in the White House candidate list. Before the December FOMC meeting concludes, these signals are more useful than any analysis.