#ETH巨鲸增持 When 29.4 billion dollars suddenly flooded into the short-term repurchase market, did you think this was just the Fed's routine operation? Take another look at the probability of a rate cut in December - 84.9%, this number is no longer a forecast, but a nailed-down script.

This money is not the kind of quantitative easing that slowly boils frogs in warm water, but rather adrenaline injected directly into the market's veins. Historical experience shows that every time the cash spigot is opened, Bitcoin is always the first pack of hounds to catch the scent. $ETH is also reacting synchronously, with on-chain data showing that large addresses are quietly increasing their holdings.

Hassett from Trump's camp has made a bold statement, "We will cut interest rates as soon as we take office," which, along with the technical signal of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling below 4%, has already sounded the starting gun for a loosening cycle. But the question arises—during the Thanksgiving holiday, when the U.S. market is closed, how will the already thin liquidity in the cryptocurrency market play out in this scenario?

Data doesn’t lie: when holiday trading volumes plummet, volatility often skyrockets by more than three times. After large funds exit, just a few million dollars can turn the price curve of $BNB into an electrocardiogram.

The crazier script is yet to come. If the economy really can't hold up, there might be "revenge rate cuts" in 2026—those exceeding 100 basis points. The last time this happened was in March 2020, and you know what happened afterward: BTC skyrocketed from $3,800 all the way to $69,000.

Liquidity injection, policy shift, holiday vacuum period, three factors overlapping. This is not a conspiracy theory; it is an open card already shown at the poker table.