#香港虚拟资产稳定币监管框架 At 9:30 tonight, three major data releases will directly determine how the crypto market and US stocks will move next!

The US has simultaneously released September retail sales and PPI data, which basically sets the tone for the market.

First, let's look at the retail sales month-on-month rate, with market expectations at +0.6% (last month was +0.4%). This indicator basically reflects how much Americans are spending— the stronger the consumption, the harder it is to reduce inflation. Does the Federal Reserve want to cut interest rates? No way. If the data exceeds expectations, the market will immediately react: the economy is still overheating, and the central bank cannot relax its policies, so risk assets will still have to fall.

Let's talk about the PPI Producer Price Index. The annual rate is expected to be 2.6% (previous value 2.7%), and the monthly rate is expected to be -0.1% (previous value +0.3%). This thing is a precursor to the CPI; when factory shipment prices drop, there will naturally be downward space for consumer goods prices. If the monthly rate really turns negative, that will be a solid signal of cooling inflation, and interest rate cut expectations can rise instantly.

There are now three possible scenarios:

First type: Strong retail + PPI stable (worst-case scenario)
The combination of a strong economy and high inflation is the most feared scenario in the market. The U.S. stock market and crypto market are likely to experience a correction.

Second type: Retail stability + PPI cooling (ideal situation)
Moderate economic growth and simultaneous decline in inflation, a perfect soft landing. Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, and risk assets are expected to rebound and recover.

Third type: both data are weak (recession risk)
Interest rate cut bets will rise, but recession fears will also ferment, leading to a market sentiment that can easily get out of control, amplifying short-term volatility.

Tonight's set of data will basically determine the direction for the coming week. What the Federal Reserve says is no longer important; the numbers will speak for it. Hold on tight, the market is about to move.