After the two coins in the crypto world hit the bottom, they rebounded and rose - what is the reason for the V-shape, and what is the core underlying reason?

Just on Friday from 3 PM to 4 PM
Bitcoin once plunged nearly 11%.
Lowest approaching the recent extreme value
Recovered most of the decline in a few hours overnight.
The increase is near the 10% limit.
(Unlike air coins that fluctuate by hundreds or thousands at any moment,
Bitcoin has risk control models and pricing mechanisms.

This kind of price movement that first plunges and then rapidly rises.
Not random noise
It is the result of the combined effect of short-term mechanisms and mid-term structural changes.

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The following is based on four questions.
Explain causality and evidence in one go.

1

Why was there a rapid drop of nearly 11% on Friday afternoon?

It is not a single reason.
but rather three forces erupting at the same time

Contract De-Leverage + Forced Liquidation Chain
The scale of forced liquidations is in the hundreds of millions to billions of dollars around November 21.
Create an automatic sell-off waterfall!
Long-term accumulation has led to negative market selling pressure.

Spot ETF continuous redemption
Mainstream ETFs like BlackRock and Fidelity
Frequent net outflows of hundreds of millions of dollars have occurred since mid-November.
Directly turn into spot selling pressure

Macroeconomic risk sentiment deteriorates
U.S. stocks fell in sync.
Risk assets collectively retreat

Three forces combined → liquidity vacuum
This is the real reason for the one-time drop of 11%.
There is no simple story of "some big player dumping".

2

Why can it quickly rebound close to 10% at night?

The logic is completely different.
The core is price recovery and liquidity recovery.

Arbitrage funds and market makers quickly intervene
After the sharp drop, the price gap between futures and spot contracts widened.
Institutions buy spot and sell contracts to lock in risk-free returns
Strong bottom support

Enter the market by bottom fishing after deleveraging is completed.
The weak bulls have been completely washed out.
The rest are buyers resistant to declines.
Triggering mechanism configuration demand in a sharp drop zone

Short covering + technical rebound
Further push up prices
(The busiest moments in the daily work of quantitative institutions and market makers!)
Volatility Organizer!)

So this 10% at night is a technical correction.
Not a trend reversal

3

What is a spot Bitcoin ETF?
How does it affect the price?

It is a fund listed on the exchange.
The fund takes investors' money.
Go to the spot market to buy real Bitcoin directly and hold it.

Net inflow → Must buy coins → Push up prices
Net outflow → Must sell coins → Lower the price

The impact is immediate, real, and structural.

Since October, ETFs have been continuously inflowing.
Turn into sustained large outflows
This is the strongest underlying logic for the recent weakness of Bitcoin.

4

Structural changes since October
Is it the underlying reason?

Yes, and it is a decisive reason.

The epic liquidation at the beginning of October
From billions to thirty billion dollars in scale
Peel away a layer of market leverage and confidence.
The aftereffects continue to this day.

The ETF has transformed from the largest buyer to the largest seller.
The buyer structure has been systematically hollowed out.

Institutions and long-term holders generally turn cautious
The upward momentum has significantly weakened.

These three structural changes
Determined the current market
"The fundamentals of 'easy to drop, hard to rise'"

Summarize in three sentences.

Friday plunged 11%: contract liquidations + ETF redemptions + macroeconomic hedging, a liquidity vacuum caused by three forces.

Night-time surge of 10%: price gap repair + arbitrage + bottom fishing + short covering, a technical rebound rather than a reversal.

The fundamental reason for the intensification of the current fluctuations and the weak market pattern is the aftermath of liquidations since October and the continuous outflow of ETFs.

(End)

Statement: Not to be taken as investment advice!