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ETH Technical Analysis:
1. Yesterday's K-line and volume situation: Yesterday, the K-line of ETH formed a doji, and the trading volume shrank. However, the degree of volume contraction is not as severe as before. This requires caution, as the trading volume might suddenly increase in the short term, leading to price changes, which is known as a trend reversal.
2. Weekly situation: This week, ETH is about to close the weekly candle. So far, the weekly candle has been in the high range of 2300 - 2800, and has closed with a doji for 6 consecutive weeks. During this period, there was also a long upper shadow shooting star candlestick with increased volume, and the price kept pushing up, but it just couldn't break through this range. As a result, the bullish momentum has gradually been exhausted, the price can't rise, and stagnation has occurred. Moreover, the KD indicator shows that it is overbought, so there is a need for adjustment and correction.
3. Contradiction between indicators and cycles:
- From an indicator perspective, the daily KD indicator is already in the oversold zone, which theoretically suggests that the price should rebound; however, the weekly KD indicator is in the overbought zone, indicating a tendency to adjust. The performance of the daily and weekly cycles is contradictory. Generally, when analyzing trends, it is still necessary to follow the larger cycle, which is indicated by the weekly chart.
- The doji star from yesterday indicates that the bullish and bearish forces are nearly balanced in the short term, resembling the calm before a storm, suggesting a potential change in trend is imminent. This aligns with the situation of the RSI indicator at the 50 watershed mark.
4. 4-hour chart situation: On the 4-hour chart, ETH's short-term price has been consolidating within a small range. It is now approaching the end of the triangular formation. Looking at the candlestick performance after the big bearish candlestick on the 17th, it feels like the current price rebound lacks strength.
5. Trading volume distribution: From the trading volume distribution chart, it can be seen that the current price of ETH is being pressured by the area where chips are concentrated. There are particularly many chips trapped at the high positions above, while the chips accumulated below are relatively fewer, indicating that the bearish side is exerting significant pressure on the market.
6. Potential bearish pattern: ETH may develop a downward trend in the ABCD proportional pattern. The low points of this pattern coincide with the low point of the high fluctuation range of 2300 over the past month and the Fibonacci 0.5 level. If there is a real decline, this would be the potential target for bears.
In summary, from a technical perspective, ETH is in a state of weak oscillation overall. If you want to wait for a clear signal before taking action, you will need to wait for a right-side confirmation signal. If you want to position yourself in advance, you can also try placing an order.