Mt. Gox transfers $936 million! Panic returns for Bitcoin, triggering the alarm for a selling wave.

A Cold Wallet of Mt. Gox transferred 10,422.6 BTC to a new Address (starting with 1ANkDML), valued at approximately 936 million USD, raising concerns in the market about potential dumping pressure. Mt. Gox was once the largest Bitcoin exchange in the world, but it collapsed in 2014 after losing about 850,000 Bitcoins, of which around 200,000 Bitcoins were recovered.

Mt. Gox Transfer of 10,422 BTC Triggers Market Alert

(Source: Arkham)

The long-standing Mt. Gox incident has once again become the focus of public opinion. Earlier on Tuesday, one of its Cold Wallets transferred over 10,422 Bitcoins. This transfer is worth approximately $936 million, and traders and analysts quickly paid attention to this transaction, witnessing the transaction process on the blockchain in real-time. Although the funds have not been transferred again, concerns about potential market impact have arisen due to the exchange still slowly advancing the repayment process.

According to tracking data from Arkham and public blockchain explorers, a Cold Wallet of Mt. Gox sent 10,422.6 Bitcoins to a new Address starting with 1ANkDML. The balance of the receiving Wallet is currently around 10,423 Bitcoins, valued at over $937 million at current prices. This transfer appears to be an internal transfer, but any movement of funds from Mt. Gox Wallet typically impacts the market.

Traders typically prepare for potential dumping pressure. Previously, the exchange announced plans to repay creditors who have been waiting since the platform's collapse in 2014. Shortly after the news was announced, the price of Bitcoin stabilized around $89,900. However, as the news spread through cryptocurrency channels, market sentiment quickly shifted. Although the transferred Bitcoins are currently at a standstill, the community remains vigilant, especially during times of market volatility and low risk appetite.

From historical experience, every large transfer from Mt. Gox tends to trigger panic in the market. During the repayment process starting mid-2024, whenever there is a change in the Mt. Gox Wallet, the price of Bitcoin often experiences short-term fluctuations. The market's concerns mainly stem from creditors possibly dumping their Bitcoin immediately after receiving it. These creditors have waited for over 10 years, and their Bitcoin cost is extremely low (Bitcoin prices were only a few hundred dollars in 2014), so even selling at current prices would yield returns of several hundred times. This potential profit-taking pressure makes any action from Mt. Gox a focal point of market attention.

Why is the Mt. Gox incident so important

Mt. Gox was once the largest Bitcoin exchange in the world, handling over 70% of the global Bitcoin trading volume at its peak. In 2014, Mt. Gox went bankrupt after losing approximately 850,000 Bitcoins, and it remains one of the most notorious events in cryptocurrency history. This incident not only caused substantial financial losses but, more importantly, severely undermined the confidence of the early Bitcoin community, making “exchange risk” a perpetual pain point for crypto investors.

Over the past decade, the court-appointed trustee has overseen a lengthy civil rehabilitation process. Ultimately, around 200,000 Bitcoins have been recovered, and Mt. Gox is using some of these Bitcoins and Bitcoin Cash to repay creditors. As the remaining funds involve billions of dollars in assets, every wallet operation triggers speculation. Many investors are concerned that large-scale distributions could lead to selling pressure, as early Bitcoin holders decide to cash out after waiting for more than a decade.

Key Data for Mt. Gox Repayment Plan

Total Loss: Approximately 850,000 Bitcoins (2014)

Recovered Amount: Approximately 200,000 Bitcoins

Current Value: Over 18 billion USD (calculated at 90,000 USD)

Final Deadline: October 31, 2026

The market impact of the recovered Bitcoins cannot be underestimated. 200,000 Bitcoins account for about 1% of the current circulating supply of Bitcoin (approximately 19.5 million). If concentrated dumping occurs, it could significantly impact the market. More importantly, the cost basis for these Bitcoin holders is extremely low, with Bitcoin prices in 2014 only ranging from $400 to $600, meaning that even at a $90,000 sell-off, the return would exceed 150 times. This extremely low cost basis means that creditors face no price pressure and can choose to cash out at any price point.

From a psychological perspective, creditors who waited 10 years to retrieve their assets may not have strong faith in the long-term value of Bitcoin. Many may have already considered the assets of Mt. Gox as permanent losses, and when suddenly recovered, they are more likely to choose to liquidate into fiat currency rather than continue holding Bitcoin. This collective psychology makes the Mt. Gox repayment seen as the “sword of Damocles” over the Bitcoin market.

The repayment process is slow, but the 2026 deadline is approaching

After years of delays, the trustee has finally begun to disburse repayment funds in mid-2024. However, the entire process remains slow and highly structured. The final deadline for distributing all remaining assets has been extended to October 31, 2026, giving the team more time to complete the necessary work. The asset transfer on Tuesday aligns with the pattern of internal restructuring, but the fluctuations of Mt. Gox often signal administrative steps in the repayment plan.

Since the funds have not yet been transferred to the exchange or further mixed, analysts believe this is likely an operational adjustment rather than a liquidation attempt. Internal transfers are usually aimed at optimizing Wallet structure, separating different batches of repayment assets, or preparing for upcoming distributions. However, the market cannot ascertain the true intentions behind these transfers, so each fluctuation triggers speculation and panic.

Even after 11 years, the Mt. Gox exchange still has the ability to shake the entire cryptocurrency world with a single transaction. As one trader jokingly remarked on social media, “The relocation of the Mt. Gox exchange is like being suddenly startled, and the background music hasn't changed since 2014.” This dark humor reflects the market's contradictory mindset towards Mt. Gox: hoping creditors can recover their assets soon while fearing that a large-scale repayment could trigger a dumping spree.

Nevertheless, Mt. Gox still holds one of the largest dormant Bitcoin reserves in the world, so the market will react to any changes. Repayments are still ongoing, but the pace remains slow. The repayments starting from mid-2024 until the deadline in October 2026 span over two years. This slow pace is to ensure the integrity of the legal process and to avoid excessive impact on the market from a large-scale one-time distribution.

How should the market respond to the shadow of Mt. Gox

For traders, the wallet movements of Mt. Gox provide important trading signals. When large transfers occur, panic selling may happen in the short term, which offers a buying opportunity for short-term traders. However, if the funds flow to the exchange after the transfer, one should be cautious of real selling pressure. Currently, the transferred Bitcoins are still at a standstill and have not flowed to known exchange wallets, so the panic may be an overreaction.

From a long-term perspective, the impact of the Mt. Gox repayments on the Bitcoin market may be overestimated. Although 200,000 Bitcoins is a large quantity, it is distributed among thousands of creditors, and the repayment process lasts more than two years. This slow and dispersed release gives the market ample time to absorb the selling pressure. Moreover, not all creditors will choose to sell immediately; some long-term believers may choose to continue holding, waiting for higher prices.