Gate Research: Implied Volatility Remains Elevated as Block Trades Indicate Mild Year-End Upside

Options Market Dynamics

Recent data shows implied volatility (IV) for BTC at 45% and ETH at 74%, remaining elevated and reflecting expectations for continued market volatility. Around November 10, the 25-Delta Skew for both BTC and ETH steepened briefly, with short-term tenors (7D, 30D) dropping to roughly -6 vol and -8 vol, suggesting increased short-term hedging demand amid higher volatility. Medium- and long-term skews remained stable, indicating limited overall bearish sentiment and that recent changes were mainly driven by short-term market emotions.

BTC’s realized volatility (RV) fell to around 39.7, with the volatility risk premium (VRP = IV − RV) turning positive — implying that future volatility may be overpriced. ETH’s RV dropped to roughly 62, and its VRP also shifted from negative to positive this week. With risk appetite improving, implied volatility appears relatively high, making volatility-selling strategies more favorable.

Block Trade Structure

In the BTC and ETH options markets, recent block trades show a clear preference for year-end bullish positioning, as traders seek low-cost exposure to potential moderate gains while maintaining downside protection. Key block trades include:

• BTC: Bought BTC-261225-95,000-P and sold BTC-261225-108,000-P, totaling about 1,000 BTC in notional volume and earning approximately $5.98 million in premiums. This structure benefits from mild upside or range-bound movement while offering partial downside protection — signaling traders’ expectations for moderate year-end gains.
• ETH: Bought long-term call option ETH-261225-6,500-C, totaling 9,700 ETH with a premium cost of roughly $137,000, reflecting sustained optimism toward Ethereum’s long-term price outlook.

Platform Update

Gate Options launched a new trading fee discount campaign from November 3, 00:00 to November 29, 16:00 (UTC). The campaign adopts a tiered fee structure, rewarding higher trading volumes with lower rates. This initiative aims to further enhance market liquidity, encourage greater participation from professional and institutional investors, and strengthen the depth and activity of the platform’s options market.

Trading Details：https://www.gate.com/options/BTC\_USDT