20 Billion USD Trading Volume Hides a Secret — Why Is DOGE Struggling to Rebound?

In the cryptocurrency market, “volume” is often seen as a precursor to trend initiation. However, recently Dogecoin (DOGE) has exhibited a typical “increased volume but weak price” phenomenon—daily trading volume surpassed approximately $2 billion, yet failed to bring about a corresponding rise. This abnormal situation is worth our in-depth exploration.

A significant increase in trading volume but no price boost: what does this phenomenon indicate?

As mentioned earlier, multiple sources indicate that in early November 2025, the daily trading volume of DOGE surged by over 60%, exceeding $2 billion. However, the price hovered around $0.16, failing to break through the previous consolidation range. Generally speaking, high volume combined with low price increase may suggest that “the chips are being transferred”—meaning that large holders are selling at high levels while buyers have not yet taken strong control.

Whale Behavior vs Retail Investor Sentiment: Who is in Control?

On-chain data shows that in the past week, large holders (whales) sold over 500 million DOGE. At the same time, there are no signs of active buyers or aggressive buying. Retail investors may feel an urge to enter the market due to the surge in trading volume, but if large holders withdraw before retail investors, the risk will increase. Moreover, the market fear and greed index is currently neutral and does not reflect a strong willingness to enter. Overall, the current sentiment and structure lean more towards a “wait-and-see” or “distribution” phase rather than a “strong launch.”

Analysis of Key Support and Resistance Levels

In technical analysis, there are two key price levels worth paying attention to:

• Support level: around the 0.15 USD area. If it breaks down, it may trigger the next round of downward movement.
• Resistance level: around the 0.18–0.20 dollar range. If it breaks through with an increase in trading volume, it may confirm the Rebound starting point.

If the current price remains above the support for a long time but fails to break through the resistance, it may oscillate within a range or tend to retreat.

Potential paths: continue to consolidate, fall back or Rebound?

Based on the current situation, three potential trend paths can be envisioned:

• Continue to consolidate sideways: If the buying and selling forces are balanced, the price may fluctuate within the range of 0.15-0.18 USD.
• Downward probing support retreat: If large holders continue to sell and buying pressure is insufficient, the price may fall below $0.15, leading to a new round of rebound.
• Breakthrough Rebound Upward: If buyers accumulate and the trading volume supports a breakthrough of 0.18-0.20 USD, it is expected to trigger a rebound market. Currently, the probability of Path 2 seems higher, but it is not certain.

What signals should market participants focus on?

If you are paying attention to DOGE, it is recommended to closely monitor the following indicators:

• Volume change: If the volume increases as the price rises, it tends to indicate a bull market; if the volume rises while the price falls, it leans towards a bear market.
• On-chain large holder behavior: Are whales still selling or starting to reallocate? If selling continues, be wary of risks.
• New active address count: Is the buying driven by retail investors?
• Price performance at key levels: particularly whether the $0.15 support holds firm, or whether the $0.18-0.20 resistance is broken.
• Overall market atmosphere: including mainstream coin trends, macro environment, regulatory policies, investor sentiment, etc.