Мировой денежный запас вырос на 446% с 2000 года: ваши наличные теряют ценность

Global money supply surged 6.7% YoY in September to a record $142 trillion across 169 economies. Year-to-date, money supply jumped 9.1%, driven by China and the US.

China Dominates Global Money Supply at $47 Trillion

(Source: The Kobeissi Letter)

The latest money supply data reveals a fundamental shift in global financial power. China’s broad money supply (M2) has reached $47 trillion, representing 33% of total global liquidity. This staggering figure equals the combined money supply of the United States, European Union, and Japan. China has become the world’s largest contributor to global liquidity, employing aggressive monetary expansion to combat deflation and prevent balance sheet recession.

However, a critical disconnect exists between China’s money supply dominance and its economic output. While China leads in currency creation, it has not yet achieved corresponding dominance in GDP. The United States remains the representative of total productivity, meaning China has printed the most banknotes globally without creating the most wealth. This imbalance suggests Chinese RMB assets face significant dilution risk as excess currency chases limited productive capacity.

China’s monetary strategy focuses on monetizing excessive currency issuance to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize growth. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act: printing enough money to prevent deflation while avoiding runaway inflation that would destabilize the economy. For investors holding RMB-denominated assets, this environment necessitates diversification strategies to hedge against currency dilution.

The implications extend beyond China’s borders. As the largest contributor to global money supply growth, Chinese monetary policy now significantly influences worldwide liquidity conditions, asset prices, and inflation dynamics. When China expands its money supply aggressively, the effects ripple through commodity markets, emerging economies dependent on Chinese demand, and global financial assets.

US and EU Maintain $22 Trillion Each as Fed Pivots to QE

The United States maintains a money supply of $22.2 trillion, accounting for 16% of global liquidity. While China has overtaken the US in absolute money supply terms, American monetary policy remains the most influential globally due to the dollar’s reserve currency status. Every Federal Reserve decision reverberates through international markets with amplified impact.

A critical inflection point approaches on December 1st, when the United States officially ends quantitative tightening (QT) and begins a new round of quantitative easing (QE). This policy pivot signals that Fed money printing machines will roar back to life, injecting fresh liquidity into the global financial system. The return of US monetary expansion is not a question of “if” but “when,” and the timeline is now clearly defined.

The European Union matches the US at approximately $22.3 trillion, also representing 16% of global money supply. However, the eurozone faces unique challenges including fragmented fiscal policy across member states, persistent low growth, and ongoing debates about debt mutualization. European Central Bank policy remains accommodative, supporting money supply growth to combat deflationary pressures and stimulate economic activity.

Combined impact of the big three

· China, US, and EU together contribute nearly 65% of total global liquidity

· Coordinated monetary expansion raises the “water level” of global financial markets

· Quality asset prices correlate closely with fiat currency liquidity expansion

· More excessive currency issuance drives quality assets higher

The synchronized monetary expansion across these three major economies creates a powerful tailwind for scarce assets. When 65% of global money supply expands simultaneously, the effects compound, pushing investors toward assets that cannot be arbitrarily created by central banks.

7% Annual Money Supply Growth Fuels Asset Inflation

Since 2000, global money supply has grown at a compounded annual rate of 7.0%, adding $116 trillion in total. This represents a 446% increase over 25 years, fundamentally altering the relationship between money and assets. In practical terms, the global “printing machines” increase money supply at 7% annually, systematically diluting and devaluing fiat currency purchasing power.

This monetary expansion explains why quality assets consistently outpace inflation over long periods. The more fiat currency exists, the more valuable scarce assets become. This inverse relationship drives savvy investors toward assets with limited supply or unique value propositions that cannot be replicated through monetary policy.

Bitcoin exemplifies this dynamic perfectly. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has delivered annualized returns exceeding 200%, dramatically outperforming the 7% annual money supply growth. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins creates mathematical scarcity that stands in direct opposition to unlimited fiat currency creation. As money supply expands, each Bitcoin represents a larger share of global liquidity.

Gold, the traditional store of value, also benefits from money supply expansion. Gold prices have reached new highs as investors seek protection against currency debasement. Unlike Bitcoin’s digital scarcity, gold offers physical scarcity validated over millennia of human history. Both assets serve similar functions in modern portfolios: hedging against monetary debasement and preserving purchasing power across generations.

The logic underlying both assets is elegantly simple: as fiat currency becomes more abundant, scarce assets become more valuable. This fundamental principle has driven gold higher for centuries and now propels Bitcoin’s meteoric rise. Investors who understand this dynamic position themselves ahead of the dilution curve, protecting wealth while potentially generating significant returns.

Monetary Expansion Continues Through 2025

The year-to-date money supply increase of 9.1% significantly exceeds the historical 7% average, signaling accelerated monetary expansion in 2025. This acceleration stems from coordinated central bank efforts to support economic growth, prevent deflation, and manage unprecedented debt levels across developed and emerging economies.

China’s aggressive expansion aims to stimulate domestic consumption and prevent a balance sheet recession that could trigger broader economic instability. Policymakers prioritize growth over currency stability, accepting dilution as the cost of maintaining employment and social stability. For global investors, this creates opportunities in Chinese assets that benefit from liquidity expansion while requiring careful risk management around currency exposure.

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming pivot from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing represents another major liquidity injection. Beginning December 1st, the Fed will expand its balance sheet again, purchasing assets and injecting dollars into the financial system. This policy shift will likely support risk assets across the board, from equities to cryptocurrencies, as fresh liquidity seeks returns.

European Central Bank policy remains accommodative despite occasional hawkish rhetoric about inflation. Structural challenges in the eurozone economy, including demographic headwinds and productivity stagnation, limit the ECB’s ability to normalize monetary policy. Persistent accommodation supports asset prices but raises long-term questions about the euro’s purchasing power.

Key takeaways for investors

· Global money supply growth accelerating beyond historical averages

· Coordinated central bank expansion creates powerful liquidity tailwinds

· Scarce assets (Bitcoin, gold, quality real estate) benefit disproportionately

· Cash holdings face systematic dilution at accelerating rates

· Strategic Asset Allocation in a High Money Supply Era

For most investors, the strategic imperative is clear: diversify away from unilateral currency exposure and embrace quality assets that preserve purchasing power. The era of “cash is king” has definitively ended, replaced by “assets are king” as the dominant wealth preservation paradigm.

Switching from cash to assets as early as possible positions portfolios to benefit from ongoing monetary expansion rather than suffer from it. Quality assets that generate cash flows, maintain pricing power, or offer mathematical scarcity provide anchors against currency debasement. Real estate in supply-constrained markets, businesses with strong competitive moats, and scarce digital assets all qualify.

Bitcoin and gold deserve particular attention as long-term value stores expected to reach new highs as money supply expansion continues. Bitcoin’s advantages include portability, divisibility, and verifiability that gold cannot match, while gold offers physical presence and millennia of historical acceptance. A balanced approach includes both.

However, concentration risk remains dangerous even in quality assets. Geographic diversification, asset class diversification, and duration diversification all play crucial roles in robust portfolio construction. No single asset, regardless of quality, should dominate holdings to the point where its failure would devastate wealth.

The upcoming global liquidity expansion creates opportunities for those positioned correctly. As central banks from China to the US to Europe simultaneously expand money supply, the tide rises for assets that cannot be arbitrarily created. Understanding this dynamic and po