Gate Research: Oil Prices and U.S. Treasury Yields Weigh on Risk Assets, BTC Retreats to $77K

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2026-09-11 02:51:34
Reading Time: 4m
Last Updated 2026-09-15 03:19:47
Gate Research Daily Report: Rising global oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields weighed on both U.S. and Hong Kong equities, while South Korean stocks showed a mixed performance. The crypto market staged a modest recovery, although BTC and ETH fell 1.78% and 0.55%, respectively, over the past 24 hours; BFC, NULS and TFUEL led the gains. The U.S. Senate unveiled a revised crypto market structure bill, while Nasdaq stepped up its push into tokenized stock infrastructure.

Global Equity Market Overview

US Market Overview

  • Major index performance: On September 10, 2026, the S&P 500 fell 0.59% to close at 7,591.70; the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.60% to 52,064.10; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.65% to 26,081.72. Small-cap stocks posted steeper losses, with the Russell 2000 falling 1.04% to 2,890.95. The S&P 500 declined for a fourth consecutive session, marking its longest losing streak since June.

  • Sector performance: Higher international oil prices supported relative strength in energy stocks, while technology, real estate, and consumer discretionary stocks came under pressure. Interest-rate-sensitive growth stocks were weighed down by rising US Treasury yields. Homebuilders also retreated sharply, with Lennar and D.R. Horton falling 3.5% and 2.4%, respectively. Macy’s dropped 4.7% despite reporting quarterly profit and revenue above expectations, reflecting concerns about the consumer outlook and broader macroeconomic conditions.

  • Major announcements and economic data: Brent crude rose 6.3%, briefly exceeding $108 per barrel before settling at $107.63. Annual US wholesale inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8% in July, while initial jobless claims remained relatively low. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.95% from 4.83%, and the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September rose to approximately 73%. Investors will next focus on the Consumer Price Index and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

Hong Kong Market Overview

  • Market performance: On September 10, 2026, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.27% to 24,949; the Hang Seng TECH Index declined approximately 2.04% to 4,329; and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped around 1.21% to 8,267. Technology stocks led the losses as higher oil prices, rising global interest rates, and geopolitical developments weighed on risk appetite.

  • Southbound Stock Connect flows: Southbound trading remained concentrated in major internet platforms, telecommunications operators, high-dividend central state-owned enterprises, and financial heavyweights. As market volatility increased, investors placed greater emphasis on cash flow, dividend yields, and share-buyback policies, while some highly valued technology stocks faced profit-taking pressure.

  • Sector performance: Technology, internet, and semiconductor stocks weakened broadly. Tencent Holdings fell 1.8% to HK$426.20; Alibaba declined 3.6% to HK$105.90; SMIC lost 2.2% to HK$63.60; and Zhipu AI dropped 7.9%. Energy stocks and selected high-dividend sectors proved relatively resilient.

  • Major announcements and IPO developments: The market continued to assess the effects of AI-related capital expenditure, elevated interest rates, and energy costs on the profit margins of internet and manufacturing companies. Hong Kong’s IPO market remained focused on companies in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, consumer goods, and advanced manufacturing, although investors became more cautious about new-listing valuations and post-IPO liquidity.

South Korean Market Overview

  • Market performance: On September 10, 2026, the KOSPI fell 0.25% to 7,033.92, while the KOSDAQ rose 0.79% to 836.92. The KOSPI fell as low as 6,898.45 during the session before recovering most of its losses on buying by institutional and retail investors.

  • Foreign and institutional flows: Foreign investors were net sellers of approximately KRW 2.48 trillion in the KOSPI market. Institutional and retail investors recorded net purchases of around KRW 433.5 billion and KRW 380 billion, respectively. The KOSDAQ rebound was primarily driven by institutional investors, who bought a net KRW 1.35 trillion.

  • Large-cap sector performance: Samsung Electronics fell 0.19% to KRW 269,000, while SK hynix declined 0.16% to KRW 1,853,000. Semiconductor equipment, defense, and insurance stocks advanced, with Jusung Engineering rising 7.02%, TSE gaining 14.15%, and Hanwha Life climbing 4.73%. Refining and chemical stocks experienced profit-taking, with S-Oil falling 6.21%.

  • Major announcements: Elevated international oil prices and rising US Treasury yields continued to weigh on risk appetite in the South Korean market. However, TSMC’s record August sales strengthened expectations for sustained demand for AI infrastructure and memory chips. The simultaneous expiration of South Korean stock-index futures and options also amplified intraday volatility.

Crypto Market Overview

  • BTC (-1.78% | Current price: 76,811.1 USDT): BTC traded between 76,491.3 and 78,554.4 USDT over the past 24 hours, with the price remaining under pressure from rising oil prices, inflation, and US Treasury yields. The hourly EMA7 stands at 77,011.25 USDT, below the EMA30 at 77,681.95 USDT, while the price is also trading below the EMA120 and EMA200, indicating a weak short-term moving-average structure. The RSI is at 28.99, placing BTC in oversold territory. The ADX stands at 50.27, indicating a relatively strong downward trend. The Bollinger Band midpoint is approximately 77,539.90 USDT, with the upper and lower bands at around 78,654.82 and 76,424.97 USDT, respectively. The 76,491–76,425 USDT range represents the main support zone, while 77,540–77,682 USDT forms the first resistance zone. Further resistance lies between 78,555 and 78,655 USDT.

  • ETH (-0.55% | Current price: 2,453.13 USDT): ETH traded between 2,405.94 and 2,484.53 USDT over the past 24 hours, outperforming BTC on a relative basis. The hourly EMA7 stands at 2,451.16 USDT, below the EMA30 at 2,462.55 USDT. The price also remains below the EMA120 and EMA200, indicating a weak moving-average structure. The RSI is at 39.18, placing ETH in neutral-to-weak territory, while the ADX stands at 31.50, suggesting that the current trend has moderate strength. The Bollinger Band midpoint is approximately 2,458.39 USDT, with the upper and lower bands at around 2,492.45 and 2,424.32 USDT, respectively. The 2,424–2,406 USDT range represents the main support zone, while 2,463–2,485 USDT forms the first resistance zone. Further resistance lies near 2,492 USDT.

  • Altcoins: The total crypto market capitalization rose approximately 0.9% over the past 24 hours to $2.72 trillion, with trading volume reaching roughly $90.608 billion. Bitcoin dominance stood at 58.96%, while Ethereum dominance was 11.41%. The Altcoin Season Index stood at 40, indicating that the market had not yet entered a broad-based altcoin season. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at 67, placing the market in “Greed” territory. Although aggregate market indicators improved moderately, short-term weakness in BTC and ETH suggested that capital was primarily rotating into selected altcoins and specific market themes.

BFC Bifrost (+238.70%, circulating market capitalization: approximately $15.4403 million)

According to Gate market data, BFC was trading at 0.037335 USDT, up 238.70% over the past 24 hours. Bifrost is a blockchain middleware platform supporting multichain applications. It is designed to help developers combine functionality from different networks while improving the compatibility and scalability of cross-chain applications.

BFC’s rally was characterized by a rapid increase in spot trading activity, a technical breakout, and concentrated short-term capital inflows. Its 24-hour trading volume reached approximately 325,700 USDT. Following the sharp price increase, market depth and buying support at elevated levels became the key indicators to monitor. A rapid decline in trading activity could allow short-term profit-taking to amplify price volatility.

Niu Lai 牛来 (+39.13%, circulating market capitalization: approximately $75.89 million)

According to Gate market data, Niu Lai was trading at 0.11441 USDT, up 39.13% over the past 24 hours. Niu Lai is a community-driven meme token deployed on BNB Chain. Its trading activity primarily revolves around cinematic and cultural references, engagement within Chinese-speaking communities, and short-term thematic interest.

Niu Lai’s rally was mainly driven by capital rotation into BNB Chain meme tokens, social-media exposure, and spot-market inflows. Its 24-hour trading volume reached approximately 5.9772 million USDT. The relatively high turnover provided liquidity for the short-term rally, although the token’s price remains highly dependent on market sentiment. Key factors to monitor include the sustainability of trading activity, ownership concentration, and the strength of buying support during pullbacks.

TFUEL Theta Fuel (+32.45%, circulating market capitalization: approximately $70.0814 million)

According to Gate market data, TFUEL was trading at 0.012456 USDT, up 32.45% over the past 24 hours. Theta Fuel is the utility token of Theta Network. It is primarily used to pay for onchain transactions, smart-contract execution, and network services, as well as to reward nodes participating in video delivery and edge computing.

TFUEL’s rally reflected renewed interest in DePIN, decentralized content delivery, and infrastructure-related tokens, accompanied by a notable increase in spot trading activity. Following the rapid advance, its subsequent performance will depend on the sustainability of trading volume, Theta Network usage, and changes in node demand.

Alpha Insights

US Senate Republicans Release Revised CLARITY Act

Republican members of the US Senate released a revised 630-page version of the crypto market structure bill, with an initial procedural vote scheduled for September 15. The updated bill introduces rules for “non-decentralized finance trading protocols,” which may be required to register with the CFTC. It also specifies that certain DeFi provisions apply only to spot and cash transactions involving digital commodities.

The revised text seeks to define the respective regulatory responsibilities of the SEC, CFTC, and US Treasury more clearly. Key issues include whether the bill can secure sufficient bipartisan support, the criteria used to determine whether a DeFi protocol is decentralized, and how lawmakers address disputes involving stablecoin rewards, anti-money-laundering requirements, and digital-asset conflicts of interest involving public officials.

Nasdaq Invests $100 Million in Kraken Parent Payward

Nasdaq Ventures agreed to invest $100 million in Payward, the parent company of Kraken, in a transaction that reportedly values Payward at $21 billion. The two companies will expand their partnership in tokenized equities and market infrastructure. Payward will also adopt Nasdaq’s market-surveillance technology across its crypto, equity, futures, options, and tokenized-equity trading platforms.

The companies plan to develop Nasdaq Equity Tokens, with a launch expected in the second quarter of 2027. The partnership shows how traditional securities exchanges are participating in the development of onchain capital markets through investment and technology services. Key factors to monitor include whether tokenized shares retain full shareholder rights, the settlement structure, regulatory approvals, and secondary-market liquidity.

Coinbase and Moov Bring Stablecoin Payments to Community Banks

Coinbase and payments infrastructure provider Moov have entered into a partnership to offer stablecoin acceptance, settlement, real-time funding, and custody services to more than 1,000 US community banks and credit unions. The services will be integrated into Moov’s existing payments platform through the Coinbase Payments API and custodial wallets.

The partnership embeds stablecoin functionality directly into the existing systems of smaller financial institutions, reducing the cost and complexity of building proprietary crypto infrastructure. Key factors to monitor include the number of institutions that ultimately adopt the services, stablecoin transaction volumes, merchant adoption, settlement costs, and applicable banking regulations.

References


Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer

Investing in cryptocurrency markets involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct their own research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such decisions.

Author: Puffy
Reviewer(s): Kieran, Summer
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