Gate Research: ETF Inflows Support Spot Demand, BTC Holds Within a Key Range

Summary

• Over the past week, U.S. equities consolidated near record highs, Hong Kong stocks remained range-bound, and South Korean equities continued to recover. AI and semiconductor stocks remained in focus, although rising oil prices, persistent inflation, and higher Treasury yields constrained global risk appetite.

• BTC traded mainly between $62,000 and $65,000 this week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $865 million in cumulative net inflows over the past five trading days, but selling pressure from a dense on-chain cost-basis zone limited the upside.

• ETH was trading at approximately $1,880. Renewed ETF inflows and an increase in the staking ratio to around 34.4% provided medium-term support, although its short-term technical structure remained cautious.

• Total stablecoin supply stood at approximately $308.9 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for a combined 82.6%. Stablecoin adoption continued to expand across payments, cross-border settlement, and RWA applications, while monthly crypto card transaction volume reached a record high.

• ComputeFi, AI education, and meme tokens saw pockets of strength. CYS, TUT, and BOME gained approximately 98.58%, 133.43%, and 36.03%, respectively, over the past seven days, although their rapid advances increased the risks of profit-taking and deteriorating liquidity.

• Funding activity this week was concentrated in AI infrastructure, optical networking, and spatial-data DePIN. Firmus, Lumilens, and Vangrid were among the largest disclosed rounds.

• Approximately $43 million worth of tokens is expected to unlock over the next seven days, led by ZRO, KAITO, and ARB. The potential impact of additional supply on market liquidity and price volatility warrants close attention.

Equity Markets

U.S. Market Overview

• Major index performance: As of August 12, the S&P 500 closed at 7,748.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 53,770.27, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,588.49. Compared with their August 7 closes, the S&P 500 fell approximately 0.12%, the Dow declined around 0.49%, and the Nasdaq lost about 0.38%, as the market entered a period of consolidation after reaching record highs.

• Sector performance: AI and semiconductor stocks continued to support the broader market. Companies such as NVIDIA and Super Micro Computer benefited from sustained corporate investment in AI infrastructure, while earnings results and expectations for capital expenditure supported selected technology shares. Energy, airline, and high-valuation growth stocks came under comparatively greater pressure from higher oil prices and long-term interest rates.

• Major announcements and economic data: Weaker-than-expected employment data released on August 7 pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield lower and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could delay further rate increases. Oil prices subsequently rebounded, however, while U.S. inflation remained elevated and disagreements among Fed officials over the future policy path continued to influence markets. The 10-year Treasury yield later climbed back to around 4.69%, limiting further valuation expansion in technology stocks.

Hong Kong Market Overview

• Market performance: Hong Kong equities remained volatile near recent highs over the past week, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating around its previous recovery range. Higher oil prices, U.S. inflation expectations, and rising Treasury yields weighed on risk appetite, sending the Hang Seng down as much as approximately 1.1% in a single session. Large internet platforms and selected financial heavyweights nevertheless provided support.

• Southbound capital flows: Southbound trading remained active, although capital flows were concentrated. Investors primarily allocated funds to major internet platforms, high-dividend financial stocks, and semiconductor companies benefiting from the domestic-substitution theme. High-volatility thematic names and consumer stocks that had recorded strong earlier gains experienced some profit-taking.

• Sector performance: Internet platforms, semiconductor companies, and selected telecommunications operators were relatively resilient, while energy and raw-material stocks were heavily influenced by oil-price volatility. AI hardware, domestic chips, and cloud computing remained in focus, but investors increasingly prioritized order visibility, profitability, and the execution of capital-expenditure plans.

• Major announcements and IPO developments: Markets continued to monitor cloud computing and AI-model developments at major internet companies, as well as potential listings and financing plans among semiconductor firms. Liquidity conditions for newly listed companies were mixed, and investors raised their expectations for earnings delivery among highly valued IPOs.

South Korean Market Overview

• Market performance: South Korean equities continued to recover from the previous period of extreme volatility, although the KOSPI remained highly volatile. Share-price movements in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continued to determine the index’s direction, making semiconductors the principal driver of both rallies and pullbacks.

• Foreign and institutional flows: Foreign selling pressure eased compared with the previous period, and some capital returned to major semiconductor stocks, although overall positioning remained cautious. Retail investors and domestic institutions continued to provide support during market declines but took some profits during rebounds.

• Sector performance: HBM, memory chips, and the AI-server supply chain remained in focus, while automotive, battery, and industrial stocks produced mixed results. Investors were primarily assessing whether U.S. technology companies would maintain their AI-infrastructure spending and evaluating capacity-utilization rates and capital-expenditure guidance from South Korean semiconductor manufacturers.

• Major announcements: Earnings outlooks, progress in HBM products, and customer orders at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix remained the main variables. Near-term risks included foreign-positioning adjustments, volatility in the Korean won, and forced deleveraging by highly leveraged semiconductor ETFs.

Market Commentary

• BTC: Bitcoin traded mainly between $62,000 and $65,000 this week. Continued inflows into spot ETFs supported demand, but the on-chain cost basis of approximately 1.79 million BTC was concentrated within the same $62,000–$65,000 range, creating selling pressure from holders seeking to break even during rebounds. Technically, the 15-minute and one-hour moving-average structures were bearish, while the four-hour and daily structures were neutral. RSI readings remained neutral across all observed time frames. The four-hour ADX stood at approximately 33.4, indicating that trend strength remained present within the range. Initial support was located between $63,280 and $62,750, followed by $62,000. The main resistance zone was between $64,100 and $65,000, while a sustained break above $65,500 would be needed to confirm a breakout from the upper boundary.

• ETH: ETH fluctuated in line with the broader market this week and was most recently trading at approximately $1,880. An increase in its staking ratio to around 34.4%, renewed ETF inflows, and the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem provided medium-term support, although its short-term trend remained cautious. The 15-minute and one-hour moving-average structures were bearish, while the four-hour and daily structures were neutral. RSI readings had yet to enter overbought or oversold territory. Initial support was located between $1,869 and $1,829, followed by $1,800. The main resistance zone was between $1,905 and $1,920, with additional resistance at $1,950.

• Altcoins: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 36, indicating fear, while the Altcoin Season Index was at 47, suggesting that a broad-based altcoin season had not yet begun. Bitcoin dominance remained high at 58.52%, showing that capital was still concentrated in BTC, ETH, and a limited number of tokens with clearly defined narratives. ComputeFi, AI education, and verifiable-computing projects saw pockets of strength, but market breadth remained limited.

• Stablecoins: Total stablecoin supply stood at approximately $308.9 billion. USDT supply was around $183.0 billion, representing approximately 59.24% of the market, while USDC supply was approximately $72.1 billion, or 23.36%. Together, they accounted for roughly 82.6% of the stablecoin market. USDS, DAI, and USD1 supply stood at approximately $6.637 billion, $4.792 billion, and $4.037 billion, respectively. Overall, on-chain dollar liquidity remained elevated, while stablecoin adoption continued to expand across trading settlement, cross-border payments, and RWA applications.

• Gas fees: Ethereum mainnet gas fees remained near historical lows, keeping the costs of on-chain transfers, DeFi interactions, and asset movements relatively low. The low-fee environment benefits the user experience, but it also reflects limited mainnet congestion and relatively subdued fee revenue. Network demand should therefore be assessed alongside Layer 2 activity, blob usage, and the volume of ETH burned.

Trending Tokens

The crypto market remained range-bound over the past seven days, with capital primarily rotating into selected ComputeFi, AI education, and verifiable-computing projects.

CYS Cysic (+98.58%; circulating market capitalization: approximately $259 million)

According to Gate market data, CYS was trading at approximately 1.67 USDT, representing a gain of around 98.58% over the past seven days. Cysic is building ComputeFi infrastructure that transforms global computing resources into verifiable and tokenized on-chain assets through hardware acceleration, zero-knowledge proof systems, and a marketplace for verifiable computing power.

CYS’s advance was primarily driven by the ComputeFi, ZK computing, and AI-infrastructure narratives, as investor interest in verifiable computing and decentralized hardware networks increased significantly. After nearly doubling within a week, the token moved substantially above its previous trading range. Its ability to sustain the rally will depend on corresponding growth in real computing workloads, node supply, token circulation, and market depth. Otherwise, profit-taking could amplify the pullback.

TUT Tutorial (+133.43%; circulating market capitalization: approximately $79.53 million)

According to Gate market data, TUT was trading at approximately 0.07 USDT, representing a gain of around 133.43% over the past seven days. Tutorial is an AI-powered educational tool within the BNB Chain ecosystem. Its intelligent agent breaks down complex subjects—including wallet setup, DEX trading, and smart-contract development—into structured lessons. TUT can be used for user rewards, feature access, and platform governance.

TUT’s rally was associated with renewed interest in AI agents, the BNB Chain ecosystem, and rotations into small- and mid-cap tokens. Following its rapid advance, the token has become increasingly sensitive to lower trading volume and profit-taking. Future performance will depend on whether user growth, product usage, and genuine token demand can provide sustained support.

BOME BOOK OF MEME (+36.03%; circulating market capitalization: approximately $54.90 million)

According to Gate market data, BOME was trading at approximately 0.00081 USDT, representing a gain of around 36.03% over the past seven days. BOOK OF MEME is a Solana-based meme project launched by the artist Darkfarms, seeking to combine meme culture, digital art, and decentralized content storage within an on-chain ecosystem.

BOME’s advance was mainly driven by a recovery in the Solana ecosystem, capital rotation into meme tokens, and higher trading volume. Its daily RSI rose to approximately 75.6, placing it in overbought territory. Although short-term momentum remained strong, the absence of a standalone fundamental catalyst left the token highly sensitive to market sentiment, declining trading volume, and profit-taking.

Key Data

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Continue as Institutional Spot Demand Remains Resilient

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $865 million in cumulative net inflows over the past five trading days, providing sustained spot demand for BTC. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC were the main contributors.

At the same time, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded approximately $244 million in cumulative net inflows, indicating an improvement in institutional demand for ETH. Bitcoin’s relatively muted price response to the ETF inflows, however, suggests that long-term holders, corporate treasury management, and over-the-counter markets may still be providing additional supply and offsetting part of the new demand.

Stablecoin Payment Volume Rises as Real-World Use Cases Continue to Expand

Crypto card transaction volume reached approximately $1.032 billion in July 2026, setting a record high. USDT and USDC accounted for most of this activity. The relatively small average transaction size suggests that stablecoins are increasingly being used for everyday purchases rather than solely for crypto trading and large-value transfers.

Overall, stablecoin use is expanding from exchange settlement into payment cards, cross-border settlement, institutional clearing, and asset tokenization. As regulated issuers and traditional financial institutions expand their presence in the sector, stablecoin infrastructure remains one of the clearest paths to commercialization in the crypto industry.

Traditional Finance Advances On-Chain Settlement as RWA Infrastructure Continues to Develop

This week, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group announced plans to use blockchain technology to provide instant settlement for selected Japanese government bond transactions. The group is also exploring on-chain repo transactions using tokenized money market funds and stablecoins.

Hong Kong, meanwhile, continued to advance licensed Hong Kong dollar stablecoins and institutional distribution channels. These developments indicate that traditional financial institutions are moving blockchain technology beyond proof-of-concept projects and into bond settlement, money market funds, payments, and institutional treasury management. RWA and regulated stablecoin infrastructure therefore remain key areas of industry development.

Weekly Focus

ETF Demand and the On-Chain Cost-Basis Zone Remain Locked in a Tug of War

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $865 million in cumulative net inflows over the past five trading days, providing sustained spot buying support for BTC. At the same time, Bitcoin repeatedly traded within the $62,000–$65,000 range this week, where the on-chain cost basis of approximately 1.79 million BTC is concentrated. A significant number of investors are therefore holding positions close to their break-even levels.

As prices approach the upper end of the range, some holders may sell to recover their initial capital, creating structural resistance. When prices retreat toward the lower boundary, ETF inflows and additional spot demand provide support. Overall, incremental ETF demand has not yet fully absorbed the existing selling pressure within the dense cost-basis zone, leaving BTC in an ongoing contest between buyers and sellers.

ETH Staking Ratio Reaches a New High as Circulating Supply Continues to Contract

ETH’s staking ratio rose to a record high of approximately 34.4%, increasing further from the beginning of the year. Growth in staked ETH reduces the supply that is freely available for trading and may lower potential selling pressure on exchanges.

However, a high staking ratio may also reduce spot-market liquidity and amplify short-term volatility if a large volume of ETH is unstaked within a concentrated period. Staking inflows, exchange balances, ETF flows, and on-chain application demand should therefore be monitored together to determine whether the contraction in available supply can translate into sustained price support.

Traditional Finance Expands the Use of Crypto Collateral and On-Chain Assets

This week, Figure launched a lending service that accepts BTC, ETH, and SOL as collateral. The service offers a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 75%, fixed interest rates, and certain liquidation-protection features, further expanding the use cases of major crypto assets as collateral.

From stablecoin payments and tokenized securities to crypto-backed lending, traditional financial institutions are gradually building a product ecosystem that connects on-chain assets with real-world financial demand. Compared with short-term thematic speculation, infrastructure projects with regulated access, real cash flows, and an institutional user base remain a key market focus.

Weekly Funding Report

According to RootData, multiple crypto and crypto-related projects announced funding rounds between August 7 and August 13, 2026. Capital was primarily directed toward AI infrastructure, optical networking, and spatial-data DePIN. The following projects were among the largest disclosed rounds this week:

Firmus

Firmus announced a $2 billion strategic equity financing round on August 7, bringing its post-money valuation to more than $10.5 billion. Investors included NVIDIA, Coatue Management, Blackstone-managed funds, Jane Street, and other institutions.

Firmus is an infrastructure company serving AI-computing demand. It develops large-scale AI data centers based on NVIDIA’s DSX AI Factory reference architecture and provides customers with cloud-computing services powered by NVIDIA hardware. The new capital will primarily support the development of Project Southgate in Australia and the company’s broader infrastructure expansion across the Asia-Pacific region, including Indonesia. The scale of this financing demonstrates that capital continues to flow into computing centers, energy supply, and high-performance computing infrastructure as demand for AI-model training and inference grows.

Lumilens

Lumilens announced a Series C financing round of more than $700 million on August 7, raising its post-money valuation to $5.51 billion. The round was jointly led by Atreides Management, Bain Capital Ventures, Meritech, Seligman Ventures, and Spark Capital, bringing the company’s cumulative funding to more than $900 million.

Lumilens provides high-speed, energy-efficient optical-networking products for AI data centers. Its technology seeks to address networking bottlenecks in large-scale AI computing by increasing data-transmission capacity and improving connectivity between GPU clusters. The company has begun supplying a hyperscale cloud provider under a multibillion-dollar customer agreement. This funding round shows that AI-infrastructure investment is expanding beyond GPU procurement into optical communications, cluster interconnection, and data-center networking.

Vangrid

Vangrid announced a $9 million seed round on August 7. The financing was structured through a Simple Agreement for Future Tokens, or SAFT, with participation from HashKey, Borderless Capital, Crypto.com Capital, Animoca Brands, Gate Labs, and Mapleblock Capital.

Vangrid is a spatial-data DePIN project serving Physical AI applications. Users collect real-world location data with smartphones, after which the platform generates 3D spatial models, verifies them on-chain, and supplies the resulting data to developers of robotics, autonomous agents, and digital twins. The network is built on Base and uses Ethereum Attestation Service to verify data batches. This financing reflects how the convergence of AI and Web3 is expanding beyond models and computing power into real-world data collection, on-chain verification, and machine-perception infrastructure.

Looking Ahead

Token Unlocks

According to Tokenomist, approximately $43 million worth of tokens is expected to unlock over the next seven days, from August 14 to August 20, 2026. The largest unlocks are concentrated in LayerZero, Kaito, and Arbitrum. Some of the released tokens are allocated to core contributors, teams, and investors, making the potential impact of additional supply on market liquidity and price volatility an important consideration. The three largest unlocks are as follows:

• ZRO is scheduled to unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens on August 20, valued at around $20.83 million and representing approximately 4.4% of its circulating supply.

• KAITO is scheduled to unlock approximately 27.18 million tokens on August 20, valued at around $12.07 million and representing approximately 11.3% of its circulating supply.

• ARB is scheduled to unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens on August 16, valued at around $6.87 million and representing approximately 1.7% of its circulating supply.

Sources

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
• DefiLlama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins
• Etherscan, https://etherscan.io/gastracker
• RootData, https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising
• Tokenomist, https://tokenomist.ai/
• AP News, https://apnews.com/article/stocks-dow-jones-iran-oil-fed-interest-rates-9d586bdbf1fb230dcf1f915dcaf50858
• AP News, https://apnews.com/article/wall-street-stocks-dow-nasdaq-c2b9200bd737220ef848a37ffea21f95
• AP News, https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-rates-iran-futures-3f3f2f2d49e4aa8744d21ecd0ce55a9c

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