The Bank of Japan Just Triggered 4 Bitcoin Crashes – One More Hike Coming June 16

Ash Crypto is a popular name on X in the crypto community. And one of his latest posts got me thinking – can the Bank of Japan actually trigger Bitcoin crashes?

He put it bluntly: “THIS IS BAD.”

The reason? Well, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates again on June 16. And every single time the BOJ has hiked in the past, Bitcoin dumped hard.

The numbers speak for themselves:

• March 2024: BTC dropped 18%
• July 2024: BTC dropped 30%
• January 2025: BTC dropped 31%
• December 2025: BTC dropped 32%

Some of those crashes happened immediately. Others took two to four weeks to fully play out. But each time, Bitcoin sold off. Each time, the pattern held. Now Ash Crypto asks the question everyone is whispering: Will it happen again?

• What’s Actually Happening with the BOJ
• The Current Crypto Market Context
• Our Take: Is This Time Different?

What’s Actually Happening with the BOJ

This isn’t speculation. Markets are pricing in an 80% to 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the BOJ’s two‑day meeting ending June 16. That would push Japan’s policy rate to 1% – the highest level since 1995.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled this shift decisively in a June 3 speech. He pointed to energy price shocks from Middle East tensions as a primary concern, making it clear that the BOJ must consider tighter policy even if the broader economic outlook remains cloudy.

A Reuters poll from May found 65% of economists expected a June move, but now that number is even higher. Three BOJ board members already wanted to hike back in April – meaning internal pressure to tighten has been building for months.

The mechanism is straightforward but brutal. Japanese institutions and retail investors have spent years borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher‑yielding assets – including Bitcoin. This is the “yen carry trade.”

When Japan raises rates and the yen strengthens, that trade becomes less profitable. Investors unwind their positions. They sell assets – including Bitcoin – to repay their yen loans.

In August 2024, a surprise BOJ adjustment triggered a sharp carry trade unwind that sent shockwaves through global markets. Bitcoin got caught in the crossfire.

Now the BOJ is moving again, and this time the market has had time to prepare. Sometimes that means the impact is muted. But Ash Crypto’s point is that the historical track record is undeniable: four hikes, four double‑digit percentage drops, with an average decline of roughly 27%.

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The Current Crypto Market Context

Bitcoin is already wounded. The BTC price just suffered one of its worst weeks in history, breaking below $60,000 for the first time since 2024. Down over 50% from its October 2025 highs.

ETF outflows have hammered sentiment. Long liquidations topped $1.5 billion in a single 24‑hour window. The 200‑week moving average near $62,000 was lost – a level that has historically acted as bedrock support.

In other words, Bitcoin is entering this BOJ decision already leaning against the ropes. Another 18‑32% drop from here would put BTC near or below the $49,000 level flagged by Peter Brandt and Kalshi traders.

Our Take: Is This Time Different?

Let’s be honest. A pattern of four consecutive declines is not a coincidence – it’s a trend. The yen carry trade is real. Japanese yield differentials influence global liquidity. And the BOJ is now firmly in tightening mode after decades of zero rates.

However, Ash Crypto’s tweet also includes a crucial question: “Will the pattern repeat, or is this time different?”

Here are three reasons it might be different – and three reasons it might not.

Why history might NOT repeat:

First, the market is now fully aware of the pattern. Many traders have already de‑risked or shorted in anticipation. When everyone expects a crash, the actual move can be shallower because the selling has already happened.

Second, Bitcoin’s correlation with the yen is real, but it’s not the only driver. Fed policy, ETF flows, and the Clarity Act outcome will matter just as much as what happens in Tokyo.

Third, a 1% Japanese policy rate is still extremely low by historical standards. The carry trade unwinds are real, but the magnitude may diminish with each hike.

Why the crash could still happen:

On the other hand, four consecutive declines is a powerful signal. The average 27% drop is too large to ignore. The Bitcoin price is already down 50% from highs – market structure is fragile. This is not a bull market that can easily absorb fresh selling pressure.

The yen strengthened 0.3% immediately after Ueda’s June 3 speech. That move alone suggests the carry trade is already starting to reverse. When that gathers momentum, it can snowball quickly.