$64 SOL, are you dollar-cost averaging or cutting losses?

First look at the surface: “Golden Pit,” or “Bottomless Pit”?

This week plunged 21%, testing the $60 critical level of life and death. The candlestick chart shows: bearish arrangement, lower lows, shrinking rebounds—typical bear market structure. But on the other side: 3.4 million daily active addresses, 100 million daily transactions, RWA total value hitting a record high of $2.8 billion, stablecoin supply at $16.4 billion.

First thing: fundamentals have never been so strong, yet the price refuses to acknowledge it.

- Over 3.4 million daily active addresses, daily transaction volume of 102.7 million

- DeFi TVL between $5.5-13.5 billion (SOL valuation still at historical high)

- RWA net inflow in May of $716 million, first in the entire chain, RWA total value hitting an all-time high of $2.8 billion

- Stablecoin supply at $16.4 billion, ETF cumulative inflows exceeding $1.1 billion

- Mastercard just launched “always-on” stablecoin settlement, Backpack pushing tokenized brokerage, native subscription payments online

But the price dropped from $293 to $64, a 78% decline.

Second thing: who’s selling, who’s buying?

Retail investors are fleeing. Community sentiment is 73% bullish, but the price hasn’t followed, indicating longs are repeatedly liquidated, panic selling is surging.

Institutions are buying. Morgan Stanley has opened SOL lending to high-net-worth clients, this isn’t small capital. 97% of RWA are tokenized equities, showing Wall Street truly uses Solana as a settlement layer.

Third thing: candlestick chart is at a life-and-death juncture.

Daily level: broke below $75 (first time since May 2022), entering an accelerated bottoming phase.

Technical indicators: RSI oversold but no bullish divergence, MACD death cross persists, moving averages bearish arrangement, volume increasing on declines, shrinking on rebounds—typical panic selling late-stage features.

$60 is the last line of defense. Holding it is a double bottom; losing it means one last drop.

Bull-bear showdown, see for yourself.

One side:

- On-chain data historically strong, RWA, stablecoins, TVL all hitting new highs

- Continuous institutional entry (Mastercard, Morgan Stanley, Backpack)

- Federal Reserve still expects 125-150 basis points rate cuts by 2026, liquidity turning point approaching

- Dropped from $293 to $64, 80% of risk already released

Other side:

- Technical bearish arrangement, broke below key $75 level, trend still downward

- Macro short-term risk appetite low, geopolitical + inflation pressures

- Kalshi predicts the lowest this month could be $57

- Rebound volume shrinking, buying interest insufficient

Key level: $64, just $4 away from the critical $60 line.

Resistance above: $67.6 → $75 → $90 → $100

Support below: $60 → $50 → $40

Short-term traders:

Buy in tranches at $60-62 (no more than 15% total position), add every 5% drop. Stop-loss at $58 (if weekly close below, exit). Target $67.6 for halving, clear at $75 for rebound position.

Swing/mid-term players:

Start DCA between $55-60, fixed weekly amount. First target: recover $100, optimistic scenario: $150+ (RWA + ETF + rate cut triple resonance).

Long-term believers:

Buy in batches below $60 without hesitation. Solana’s fundamentals justify over $200, it’s just a matter of time.

Risk iron law:

- SOL position no more than 30% of total funds

- Must cut losses below $58 to prevent踩踏 to $40

The current script for SOL is very much like late 2023—

Everyone was saying “Solana is doomed,” yet it rose from $8 to $200.

The most expensive illusion in a bull market is “this time is different.”

On-chain data doesn’t lie, institutions don’t joke with money. Price #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX is just late, not absent.