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Losing $74,000 for Bitcoin was bad news.
Alright, back from my holiday and feeling refreshed.
Time to reassess and get back on top of things after having the long held $74,000 level lost.
This has been a level i have been using in my overall analysis for about 6 months now.
We lost it, devaited, then reclaimed it.
From there we had a really nice run up to $83,000, reclaiming Weekly HTF structure amongst may other key levels, whilst the bears missed the entire move.
However, last week, the bears regained control and we lost $74,000 once more.
No sugar coating it - Losing it after reclaiming it was not a strong sign.
And from that exact $74,000 level, Bitcoin cascaded $14,000 over a few days totalling up $5bn+ in liquidations.
Making the first ever lower low, albeit only a wick, during business cycle expansion.
So where does that leave us?
Well, there's good news and bad news.
The good news is that Bitcoin did all of its cascading and liquidating ABOVE the $60k low, whereas usually, once it breaks below its current low, it continues to drop hard.
We didnt do that.
We also closed the weekly above the 200 SMA and have now printed a bullish divergence on the weekly.
All very positive signs.
However, the bad news is that we had the first weekly close below the 2021 ATH, something that in 2022 preceded the next stab lower.
There is still a decent chance the $60k low is the macro low, but we want to see it continue to hold, apart from some lower sweeps to test and solidify the low...
And we then want to reclaim $65,000 to be confident in more upside.
If we can't reclaim $65,000, then I would expect Bitcoin to continue to eat into lower.
The vast majority of the liquidity is to the upside, heavily outweighing the dowside. However, there is a decent amount at $54,000.
I had a very tightly held plan and did not waver from it, but now we lost 74,000, we have to adapt. That's the game.
Regardless of what move is next, Bitcoin and the wider market is in deep value territory here - there is no two ways about that.
I added more ETH and TAO last week, and will dig into the last bit of stables if we do get another stab lower.
Any and all buys that happen at these levels are future goated buys, and they will always be hard in the moment.
That's just the way it is.
If you can find the balls to take them, you will be grateful in months to come.
This week will be important in assessing which main direction is next.