How to view the double attributes and extreme tearing of the big pancake? Let's simulate the script of the golden pit.

1. Risk release phase (pessimistic): The big pancake is most sensitive to liquidity.
Both the US dollar and Japanese yen face concerns of interest rate hikes; once the yen hikes interest rates, arbitrage funds exit, and the global liquidity gap will be huge, potentially replicating the stampede during Japan's interest rate hike in 2024.
This Wednesday's US CPI is also highly likely to increase expectations of US rate hikes. In this context, growth assets represented by technology will come under pressure, and the big pancake may even act as the vanguard of a sharp decline.
The reason is: since the US stock Bitcoin spot ETF has been deeply involved through primary Wall Street channels, the big pancake has essentially been classified as a high-beta, highly liquid tech growth stock extension in macro fund allocations.
If a similar stampede caused by yen arbitrage in 2024 occurs, Wall Street longs, to replenish US stock liquidity or add margin, will often choose to sell highly liquid crypto assets that trade 24/7.
Therefore, in the early stage of US stock correction, the big pancake is likely to follow or even amplify the decline, engaging in fierce deleveraging.
2. After adjustment (optimistic): The big pancake will return to being the ultimate hedge tool for fiat currency credit.
Once the first phase of liquidity risk is released, the AI bubble passively tightens, and macroeconomic negative factors are digested, the second attribute of the big pancake will be fully activated.
Although Alphabet's 80 billion financing tactically locks in the computing power moat, strategically it also signals to the market that AI's money-burning speed has surpassed the core business’s cash-generating speed.
Equity financing is the last resort; when giants have exhausted their cards, what’s next? Similarly, when global central banks face liquidity crises and economic recessions, their last cards are already played out. The final measures can only be to cut interest rates again or even restart unlimited QE to inject liquidity.
When the market realizes that fiat currency credit must be devalued again to save debt and tech bubbles, capital will flow extremely narrowly into top tech giants, while in the hard asset sector, only frantic inflows into BTC will occur.
Summary: Wait for the golden pit after deleveraging. When the market crushes BTC into a deep pit due to liquidity exhaustion, it often presents the best left-side entry opportunity for a highly optimistic partial market.