How much longer can the super cycle of storage chips last?

On June 8th, during the rebound of chip stocks, Micron Technology rose nearly 10%, making it one of the biggest gainers of the day. Just last week, the three major players in storage experienced a collective plunge, and market debates over whether the "storage cycle has peaked" are intensifying.

Micron's latest financial report provides a direct answer: in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, total revenue reached $13.6 billion, up 21% quarter-over-quarter and 57% year-over-year, setting new records for three consecutive quarters, with gross margin rising to 56.8%. The company expects second-quarter revenue to reach a record $18.7 billion. More importantly, Micron stated that it can currently only meet about 50% to two-thirds of the demand from key customers, and by 2026, all HBM capacity has been fully booked by customer orders. Wall Street analysts have raised Micron's target prices, with the core logic being: AI-driven storage demand continues to expand, and the HBM market is monopolized by Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. New entrants require a 2-3 year factory construction cycle, creating high barriers to competition. Analysts expect the supply-demand tightness to persist until 2027 or 2028.

In terms of market size, the total HBM market is expected to grow at approximately 40% compound annual growth rate, from $35 billion in 2025 to $100 billion in 2028.

Lyon Business School management practice professor Li Huihui pointed out: "This is more like a 'forced cooling of crowded trading,' not the end of the storage super cycle. The decline of storage giants is a normal correction during an upward trend, a collective re-pricing by the market of previous gains, valuations, and positions, rather than a sudden deterioration of company fundamentals."

For long-term investors, the structural opportunities in storage chips are far from over, and every correction is a window to reassess allocations.

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