From Non-Farm Data to ETF Flows—Latest Signals in Macro and Capital Markets

On June 8th, Bitcoin rebounded over 5%, returning to 63,000. Two key variables are at play behind this: macro factors and capital flows. Understanding the latest changes in these two areas is essential to judge how far the rebound can go.

Macro: Non-farm panic has been digested. Last Friday, the US non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, initially sparking concerns about rate hikes. But then several Federal Reserve officials stated—"Single-month data is not enough to change policy, the course remains unchanged." The market gradually calmed down, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising from 48% back to over 60%. Next, the market's focus shifts to the FOMC meeting on June 11-12. It is expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot and economic projections are key. If the dot plot shows two rate cuts in 2026, it would be positive for risk assets; if it shows only one or none, the market may fluctuate again.

Capital: ETF flows return to net inflows. From June 7 to 8, Bitcoin spot ETFs ended three consecutive days of net outflows and turned into approximately $80 million of net inflows. Although the amount is modest, the signal is clear. More importantly, ETF shares of BlackRock and Fidelity did not significantly shrink during the decline, indicating that institutional investors have not made large-scale redemptions. Additionally, the total supply of stablecoins increased by about $1 billion on June 8, suggesting off-exchange buying power is recovering.

Combining macro and capital signals, my judgment is: the rebound has a foundation for continuation, but in the short term, it will be influenced by the FOMC meeting. Market volatility may increase before and after the meeting, but the medium-term trend remains upward. The next key resistance is at 65,000; a breakout could target 68,000.

In terms of trading strategy, I am currently preparing: First, before the FOMC meeting (June 11), reduce positions from the current 70% to 60%, keeping more cash ready for volatility. Second, after the meeting results are announced, if the dot plot is dovish (2 rate cuts), increase to 80%; if hawkish (1 or 0 rate cuts), maintain 60% and wait. Third, regardless of the outcome, avoid shorting, as rate cuts are only delayed, not reversed.

How far can the rebound go? Short-term target is 65,000; medium-term target is 68,000. But this depends on macro conditions not delivering unexpected negative surprises.

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