65,000 is within sight—breakthrough or pullback? The showdown between bulls and bears

On June 8th, Bitcoin retook $63,000, leaving only about 3% space to the key resistance level of $65,000. The market is once again at a crossroads: will it break out with high volume, or face resistance and pull back? Let's analyze the latest positions of both bulls and bears.

Advantages of the bullish camp: First, macro panic has been digested, and expectations for rate cuts are rising. Second, contract leverage has been cleared, with open interest down 25%, indicating no crowded longs needing to be wiped out. Third, ETF capital has returned to net inflows, with institutions supporting around $62,000. Fourth, the exchange-held BTC reserves are low, and whales have no selling intention.

Advantages of the bearish camp: First, there is a large amount of trapped positions in the $65,000–$66,000 range, and the pressure to unload is significant. Second, the residual effects of the stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data are still present, and the market may remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's June rate decision. Third, during the rebound, trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating limited new funds, mainly driven by short covering.

Overall, I believe a breakthrough of $65,000 is highly probable, but it may require multiple attempts. The first time it touches $65,000, it is likely to be knocked down, then retest around $63,500–$64,000 to gather strength; only on the second or third attempt might it break through effectively. Historical experience shows that key resistance levels rarely break in one go.

In terms of trading strategy, my recent plan is: within the $63,000–$65,000 range, manage positions with a "buy low, sell high" approach. Specifically: sell 15% of my flexible positions at $64,500–$65,000, and buy back at $63,500–$64,000. Keep 40% of the core holdings unchanged, and hold 30% in cash, waiting for clearer direction. If BTC volume surges and it stabilizes above $65,000, add 10% to the position on the right side, targeting $68,000. If the breakout fails and it drops below $62,000, cut losses and exit the flexible positions, while holding the core holdings.

Whether up or down, the key is to have a plan. Don't bet on the direction—prepare for every possibility.

# Bitcoin rebounds 5%
$BTC