Wintermute Warning: Non-farm data too hot triggers bloodbath in Bitcoin and tech stocks, Strategy surprisingly reduces holdings for the first time in two years

According to the latest market report released by the well-known cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, the global financial markets have once again fallen into a panic regime of "good news is bad news," driven by the extremely strong U.S. non-farm payroll data in May. Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted about 14% over the past week, briefly falling below $62,000; meanwhile, AI sectors and tech stocks suffered a bloodbath, with the Nasdaq index dropping 4.7%.
(Background: UK retail funds are now buying Bitcoin: FCA proposes a 10% quota cap, open consultation before the end of July)
(Additional context: Founder of Chinese mining pool BTC.TOP: Even if Bitcoin drops to $30, it won't shake Strategy, overinterpreting panic selling)

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• Non-farm data explodes! "Good news is also bad news"
• Cracks in the labor market: layoffs primarily due to "AI"
• Strong signals! Strategy surprisingly shows net selling for the first time since 2022

The strong economic data from the U.S. once again acts as a catalyst for the crypto market and U.S. stocks, but this time bringing heavy selling pressure. In its latest market report released today (9), Wintermute, a renowned crypto market maker and top OTC trading desk, pointed out that the abnormal heat in global macroeconomic data has completely crushed market expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) initiating easing policies in the short term, leading to relentless liquidations of risk assets over the past week.

The report shows that Bitcoin (BTC) plunged about 14% in the past week, briefly breaking below the $62,000 level, with prices retreating to the lowest levels since September 2024. Not only are crypto markets suffering, but previously booming AI tech stocks also collapsed collectively, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping 4.7% in a single week, and the S&P 500 experiencing its first weekly decline since March this year.

Non-farm data explodes! "Good news is also bad news"

Wintermute analyzed that the epicenter of this market upheaval is the U.S. Labor Department’s May non-farm payroll report released last Friday. The data showed that the U.S. added a substantial 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of 80,000; at the same time, April’s job gains were revised sharply upward from an initial 115,000 to 179,000.

In addition to the explosive employment numbers, the U.S. job openings (Job Openings) also surged to 7.6 million, hitting a two-year high; the ISM Services Price Index also rose to its highest point since August 2022. From an economic perspective, this undoubtedly indicates a highly resilient and robust economy; but under the current monetary tightening regime, it becomes a significant problem. These figures directly undermine the recent rationale for the Fed to cut interest rates, implying that restrictive high interest rates will persist longer (Higher for longer), causing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to soar to 4.55%.

Cracks in the labor market: layoffs primarily due to "AI"

However, Wintermute also pointed out in its report the underlying structural cracks hidden beneath the strong data. Although headline figures are abnormally hot, the latest U.S. initial unemployment claims have risen to 225,000, the highest since February this year.

More concerning is that U.S. corporate layoffs have increased for the third consecutive month. The report emphasized that among those laid off, the most frequently cited reason by companies is "artificial intelligence (AI)" implementation. This suggests that beneath the surface of strong employment data, the traditional labor market is gradually thinning. Yet, the Fed’s current decision-making seems more inclined to hawkishly react to the hot headline figures.

Strong signals! Strategy surprisingly shows net selling for the first time since 2022

On the crypto holdings side, Wintermute revealed a highly indicative and shocking piece of news: as Bitcoin continued to decline, the long-standing "buy-and-hold" whale entity Strategy sold 32 BTC this week, breaking its usual accumulation strategy.

Wintermute commented on this in the report: "Although the scale of this transaction is objectively insignificant (Immaterial in size), it carries a very strong symbolic signal (Symbolic in signal) in terms of market psychology and sentiment." This means that even the most steadfast crypto treasury holders, facing the dual pressures of prolonged high interest rates and worsening macroeconomic conditions, may be subtly shifting their asset allocation policies. This signal is undoubtedly worth close attention from all on-chain investors.