2026 IPO Wave: How Will OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic Influence Capital Flows?

On June 8, 2026, OpenAI announced on its official website that it had secretly filed its S-1 registration statement for an initial public offering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Just a week earlier, its main competitor Anthropic had also completed the same secret listing process. Both leading AI companies, with a combined valuation approaching $2 trillion, are targeting an IPO window in fall 2026.

Almost simultaneously, Elon Musk's SpaceX has entered the roadshow phase for its IPO, with an estimated valuation of about $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. The three tech giants' combined valuation nears $4 trillion, signaling that the U.S. stock market is about to experience one of the largest IPO waves in recent years.

Why Are Top AI Companies Accelerating Their IPO Processes

OpenAI did not disclose a specific timeline for its IPO in its statement but clearly stated, "Submitting IPO documents allows us to have a faster route to the public markets when going public aligns better with our interests." Sources familiar with the matter reveal that OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, aiming to go public as early as this fall.

From a valuation perspective, the urgency of OpenAI's IPO window is directly related to the high capital needs in the AI race. Morningstar chief stock analyst Michael Field pointed out, "These companies are burning money rapidly to win the AI competition, and public equity is currently the lowest-cost financing channel, especially in an environment of rising interest rates."

Another significant driver is the "first-mover pressure" from competitors. Anthropic has already completed its secret submission and, in its latest funding round, reached a valuation of $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion for the first time. Capital market advisor Jeff Bernstein directly highlighted the core logic of this race: "It's a competition for capital. If they go out first, they will take away a large portion of available IPO funds."

Historical data offers some reference points: the median return of the 10 largest U.S. IPOs in their first year was a decline of 31%, with seven underperforming the S&P 500 index. Going public first does not necessarily guarantee a higher stock price, but given the capital needs in the current AI race, "slowing down" carries greater risks than "running ahead."

Can a $1 Trillion Valuation Stand Up to Public Market Scrutiny?

Valuation is always the core debate in IPO pricing. As of June 9, 2026, the AI sector is at a point of high valuation concentration with significant divergence.

Shareholder structure of OpenAI shows that Microsoft holds 26.79%, making it the largest shareholder, followed by the OpenAI Foundation at 25.8%, and SoftBank holding about 11.66%. Microsoft has invested approximately $13 billion in OpenAI, with a current book value of about $228.3 billion, yielding an investment return multiple of approximately 17.6 times. SoftBank entered at a high valuation stage with an investment of about $64.6 billion, corresponding to a book value of roughly $99.3 billion, with a return multiple of about 1.5 times.

However, the other side of valuation growth is the enormous pressure of losses. OpenAI has previously warned investors that it expects to be profitable only by 2030. This "high growth with high losses" structural characteristic presents a challenge for public market pricing: how to explain a clear path to profitability to secondary market investors based on an initial valuation of $852 billion.

Industry structure analysis by D.A. Davidson's Managing Director Gil Luria indicates, "OpenAI most certainly does not want public market funds to be exhausted. Not only are SpaceX and Anthropic leading in IPO queues, but large competitors may also refinance hundreds of billions of dollars through public offerings." Valuation restructuring is not just a matter for a single company but a systemic re-pricing process that the entire AI sector must undergo as it transitions from private to public markets.

Will the IPOs of the Big Three Trigger Capital Outflows from the Crypto Market?

Since spring 2026, the crypto market has experienced sustained net capital outflows. Bitcoin, after a continuous decline, hovers below $63k, nearly halving from its October 2025 peak; Ethereum approaches a 52-week low of around $1,700.

Looking at capital flow structures, there is a significant divergence between cryptocurrencies and AI tech stocks. Data shows that in the first week of June 2026, four major semiconductor ETFs collectively saw nearly $3 billion in net inflows, with total inflows for the year reaching about $21 billion. Meanwhile, since May 20, the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF has experienced nearly $2 billion in net outflows.

Multiple explanations exist for this capital shift. On one hand, the growth narrative of the AI sector's certainty contrasts with the macro-sensitive nature of the crypto market, leading some institutional investors to shift funds from volatile digital assets to more institution-friendly tech stocks during risk adjustments. On the other hand, IPOs themselves can directly impact liquidity: if SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic each sell about 5% of their shares, the total fundraising could approach $150 billion based on current valuations.

However, it is important to note that capital rotation does not imply causality. The decline in cryptocurrency prices is also influenced by macro interest rate expectations, regulatory uncertainties, and market sentiment. The liquidity changes triggered by the AI IPO wave should be viewed as part of the broader structural shift in risk asset allocation, rather than a single causal event.

Potential Regulatory and Narrative Risks in the Current IPO Boom

Any IPO boom is accompanied by concerns about market structure. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon remarked that the current market prosperity reminds him of 1972, 1986, 2000, and 2007—each followed by a bear market or crisis. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio also assessed that the U.S. stock market is approaching levels seen before the Great Depression of 1929 and the dot-com bubble burst of 2000.

In the emerging field of Pre-IPO derivatives, regulatory frameworks face challenges. Currently, Pre-IPO perpetual contracts operate within crypto exchanges' derivatives product lines, with pricing mechanisms relying on third-party public signal sources. When transitioning to standard contract pricing, price volatility remains to be further tested by the market.

Additionally, the high valuation pricing and relatively limited initial float—some analyses suggest free float could be as low as 3%–8%—in the 2026 IPO market resemble early crypto token issuance, both tightening circulating supply to amplify market liquidity competition. Whether this structure is sufficient for price discovery remains an important narrative variable in this tech IPO wave.

Industry Structural Evolution Amid the AI IPO Wave

Viewing the IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX within the same timeframe reveals a broader trend: the AI sector is transitioning from "cutting-edge technology exploration" to "core infrastructure assets."

The key vehicle for this transformation is the capital market. Going public allows these AI companies to reach millions of retail and pension investors, gaining deeper liquidity than private markets, and using stocks as acquisition currency and employee incentives. The resources mobilized through these financial tools will ultimately translate into chip procurement, data center construction, and top talent acquisition, fundamentally shaping the future competitive landscape of AI.

Josef Schuster, CEO of IPOX, commented directly: "The market is currently welcoming these companies with open arms, but as their fundamentals take shape, the market will be unforgiving in rewarding or punishing them. Their future as public companies will be highly dynamic and full of change."

For the cryptocurrency industry, the IPO wave in the AI sector not only brings short-term capital outflows but also offers a reference for reassessing its own positioning. When a new technological paradigm matures sufficiently, capital markets tend to shift from "early-stage venture capital" to "public market pricing." The volume of AI IPOs, in a way, reinforces this self-reinforcing mechanism at an economic level.

Summary

OpenAI's secret IPO filing has pushed the already hot AI sector's capital competition into a new phase. With Anthropic and SpaceX nearly simultaneously targeting a 2026 fall IPO, with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion, this wave of IPOs has become one of the most influential events in recent capital markets.

This article outlines four core aspects of this event: first, the motivations behind top AI companies accelerating their IPOs, driven by massive funding needs and first-mover pressures; second, the core challenge of valuation restructuring—how to demonstrate the reasonableness of high valuations to public markets; third, the role of Pre-IPO perpetual contracts as new derivatives tools providing early participation opportunities for crypto investors in AI sector valuation; and fourth, the existence of capital outflows, which should be viewed within the broader context of risk asset allocation shifts.

The AI IPO wave has only just begun, and its long-term impact on crypto market capital structures and investor behavior remains to be further observed.

FAQ

Q: When is OpenAI's IPO expected to be completed?

OpenAI filed its S-1 registration statement secretly on June 8, 2026. The specific timeline has not been confirmed. Sources reveal that the company is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, aiming for a possible IPO as early as fall 2026.

Q: What is a Pre-IPO perpetual contract?

A Pre-IPO perpetual contract is a synthetic perpetual futures product that uses USDT as margin and settlement currency. Before the company's official listing, it sets a mark price based on private funding rounds, regulatory filings, and other public signals; after listing, it transitions to a standard perpetual contract tracking the real-time stock price. These contracts do not confer any equity or shareholder rights.

Q: How will the AI IPO boom affect the crypto market?

Data shows that since spring 2026, AI tech stock ETFs have experienced continuous net capital inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows. This divergence relates to the growth narrative of AI but is also influenced by macro factors like interest rate expectations and regulatory uncertainties. Capital rotation is driven by multiple factors and is not caused by a single event.

Q: What are the valuation levels of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX?

As of June 2026, OpenAI's latest private funding valuation is about $852 billion, with an expected IPO valuation exceeding $1 trillion; Anthropic's latest valuation is approximately $965 billion; SpaceX's target valuation is around $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. The three companies' combined valuation approaches $4 trillion.