$62,500 Bitcoin, not buying it and waiting for it to go to zero?

Let's look at the surface: a drop so severe it makes you doubt life.

From the peak of over $100k, down to $62,500, a nearly 40% decline. Daily and weekly charts are all in a downtrend, with the price breaking below the 200-week moving average (first time since October 2023), and the death cross continues to widen. The candlestick chart shows: the bear market structure is intact, and the downward momentum is not over.

First thing: ETFs are running, but who's buying?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced 13 consecutive days of massive outflows, totaling over $4.4 billion, with BlackRock and Fidelity both net redeeming.

But look at on-chain data: whales have sold 21,881 BTC, while retail investors continue to buy small amounts.

MicroStrategy has sold Bitcoin for the first time—markets are freaking out.

Second thing: macro pressure is mounting, but the Federal Reserve has no more cards to play.

The Fed's June meeting has a 99% probability of maintaining interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%, because core PCE remains sticky at 3.8%.

High interest rates → strong dollar → expensive liquidity → institutions reduce holdings of non-yield assets (BTC) → ETF outflows → price crashes.

But the market has already priced in “no rate cuts this year.” Even the most hawkish expectations are already in the price, so can it get worse?

And history shows: whenever CPI turns downward, BTC is the first to take off.

Third thing: a strange phenomenon appears on the candlestick chart.

A rising wedge breakout on the 4-hour chart—this is a bearish continuation pattern, no problem.

$100k in 24 hours, with volume shrinking—rebound on low volume, decline on no volume.

The $60k level has become a critical support/resistance line.

But the weekly chart has been down four weeks in a row, and historically, the probability of a fifth week closing in the red is less than 20%.

Bull vs. bear, see for yourself.

One side says:

- 13 days of ETF outflows, institutions deleveraging, bear market structure intact
- Breaking below the 200-week MA, death cross, extremely bearish technicals
- Macro pressures (high interest rates, strong dollar, sticky CPI)
- If $60K breaks, a drop to $50K is not a dream

The other side says:

- $60K has tested three times, with many orders supporting
- Shrinking volume indicates exhaustion of selling pressure
- Retail investors are starting to buy the dip (Coinbase premium turns negative, US institutions selling, retail buying)
- Historically, when everyone says “the bear market is here,” the bottom is often near

Key level: $62,500, just $2,500 away from the critical $60k line.

Resistance above: $64k → $66,000 (upper bound of the downtrend channel) → $70,000

Support below: $60k (psychological + liquidity level) → $58k → $55k → $50k-$52,000

Short-term traders:

Bearish priority: rebound to $65,500-$66,000, small short positions, stop-loss at $66,800, targets at $62K → $60K → $58K.
Position size ≤ 2%, leverage ≤ 5x.

Bullish opportunity: precise bottom-fishing around $60K (must have volume + oversold conditions), position size ≤ 5%, stop-loss at $58,500, target rebounds to $64K-$65K and then exit.

Swing traders:

- Wait for ETF outflows to slow + $60K to hold (weekly hammer candle), then build positions gradually, with cost below $62K.
- If $60K breaks, stay on the sidelines, with a target of $50K-$55K as the real golden pit.

Long-term believers:

- 70% cash/stablecoins, 20% spot BTC, 10% altcoins/leverage.
- Wait for macro conditions to loosen (rate cut signals + ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion/week) before re-entering, aiming to return to $1B-$100K in late 2026.

Bitcoin now is like gold in March 2020—

Market crash due to pandemic, everyone panicked and sold, gold dropped from $1700 to $1450, then surged to $2000.

The harsh truth in a bear market: you sell at the worst possible point, then watch others scoop up #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX your chips at the bottom.