6.9 Evening Analysis

From the 1-hour cycle perspective, the price has oscillated and fallen back from the high of 64179, currently trading at 62559 below the BOLL middle band of 63108, forming a clear breakdown structure. The upper band of Bollinger Bands at 63806 continues to decline, creating a strong resistance zone. The rebound space is significantly suppressed, and the price approaches the lower band support at 62409, with increased risk of a breakdown. In terms of candlestick structure, consecutive bearish candles at high levels, diminishing rebound strength, and exhausted bullish momentum have clearly formed a downtrend line; the KDJ indicator's three lines continue to decline, with the J value dropping to 5.96. Although in the oversold zone, there is no obvious turning signal, and the bearish momentum has not been fully released.

Multiple negative news factors resonate to strengthen downward pressure: the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations continue to fall short, with institutions like Goldman Sachs delaying rate cut forecasts, and the US dollar remaining strong, continuously suppressing risk assets; the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a historic large weekly net outflow, with institutional funds continuously withdrawing, significantly increasing selling pressure; coupled with escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts boosting risk aversion sentiment, market risk appetite continues to weaken. The technical breakdown and macroeconomic negative factors resonate, and the rebounds near the middle band are all short-selling opportunities. If the price cannot quickly recover above the middle band in the short term, it is highly likely to continue downward testing the lower support, possibly opening further downside space, with a clear bearish trend.

Trading suggestion: 63100-63600 short, target 62100-61600.