BTC demand shrank to "negative 650k coins," a rare occurrence in 7 years! CryptoQuant: The final cleansing has just begun

CryptoQuant analysis indicates that the growth in combined demand for Bitcoin’s 30-day spot and perpetual contracts has fallen to approximately negative 650k BTC, one of the most extreme contraction levels since 2019, with this happening only 3 times historically.
(Background: BTC flash crash into the five-figure range, ETH breaks 1600! $1.8 billion liquidated, 347k people wiped out, mostly longs)
(Additional context: CryptoQuant warns that a bear market is coming: Bitcoin’s positioning structure is breaking down, whales are pulling back, and buyers are dramatically reducing their positions)

Key Summary

• BTC 30-day comprehensive demand has fallen to approximately negative 650k BTC, the most extreme level since 2019, with only 3 historical occurrences
• Spot ETF net outflows have continued for 13 days, totaling $4.4 billion, about 59.4k BTC leaving the market; AUM has dropped from $104.3 billion to $80.4 billion
• CryptoQuant believes the current structure is nearing the early stage of the “final cleansing phase”; it is not a reversal signal, and volatility may expand first before entering a sideways range

An extreme signal that has only appeared 3 times in history is now the 4th time. CryptoQuant’s latest analysis of updated data shows that the growth in combined demand for Bitcoin’s 30-day spot and perpetual contracts has fallen to approximately negative 650k BTC—one of the most severe demand contraction levels since 2019. The last time it reached a similar range was during the 2022 bear market.

BTC is currently around $62,650, down about 10% over the past 7 days. On June 6, it briefly flashed down to $59,141; single-day liquidations totaled $1.829 billion, and 347k people were liquidated.

Bitcoin Demand Hits a Level Seen Only 3 Times Since 2019

“The current setup therefore looks less like a confirmed reversal and more like the beginning of a final cleansing phase.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/Qk0lrzTDky

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) June 9, 2026

Spot and leverage retreat at the same time—bids disappear

The danger of this demand contraction is not only that buying interest in the spot market is weakening; demand for perpetual contracts (leveraged speculation) is contracting in tandem as well. Whether long-term buyers or short-term leveraged speculators, everyone is stepping out of the market.

The data from spot ETFs directly confirms this. From May 15 to June 3, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 13 consecutive days of net outflows, totaling $4.4 billion, about 59.4k BTC leaving the market. Total assets under management (AUM) fell sharply from $104.3 billion to $80.4 billion, shrinking by nearly a quarter. On June 5, a modest net inflow of $3.05 million briefly interrupted the streak, but compared with the scale of prior outflows, it can only be seen as a brief breather.

CryptoQuant’s stress gauge is currently around 40%. It suggests investors to “wait patiently—the strongest entry point will only appear after the confirmation that selling pressure has been exhausted.”

The cleansing has only just begun

Historically, when this demand indicator reaches extreme levels, it typically does not mean the market will bottom immediately. During the 2022 bear market, demand also saw a similar deep contraction, but afterward the market went through several months of intense volatility and further downside before it truly entered a long-term range-bound bottoming phase.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr also noted that Bitcoin has lost its structural upside momentum and is currently in a “Risk-off” phase. His model shows that Bitcoin needs to fall to around $59,000 before it enters the medium- to long-term bottoming zone. Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average is around $61,300. This line has served as support for cycle bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that about 50.43% of the BTC supply is in profit and 49.56% is in loss, with the profit and loss ratios nearly crossing. This crossover point has historically often occurred in the late stage of bear markets, but “late” does not mean “over.”

The above is not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does it mean when Bitcoin demand contracts to negative 650k BTC?

It refers to the combined demand growth for 30-day spot and perpetual contracts turning negative, meaning sell pressure far exceeds buy pressure. This level is the most extreme since 2019, with only 3 occurrences in history, including during the 2022 bear market.

How low do CryptoQuant analysts think Bitcoin could go?

Analyst Axel Adler Jr’s model indicates that BTC needs to fall to around $59,000 to enter the medium- to long-term bottoming zone. The 200-week moving average, around $61,300, has historically supported cycle bottoms—but touching it does not equal an immediate rebound.