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Well, there goes the soft landing narrative. ✈️💥
On June 5, the US dropped a jobs number that nobody was ready for: +172,000 nonfarm payrolls in May. Expectations were only 85,000. That's not a beat — that's a blowout. A three-month high.
And the market reacted like someone pulled the fire alarm.
📉 Nasdaq plunges 4%
📉 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index? Down over 10%. Brutal.
Why? Because strong jobs = economy not cooling = Fed can't cut. In fact, the market now prices a 70% chance of a hike by year-end, up from 48% pre-data. Yes, a hike. Not a cut. We're going backwards.
Rate hike fear is back, and it's wearing steel-toe boots.
Tech gets crushed first. Semis get crushed hardest. Macro pressure isn't a whisper anymore — it's a freight train.
The computation challenge for me isn't the math (172k vs 85k is clear enough). It's trying to figure out where the soft landing crowd hides now.
Buckle up. The Fed isn't done.
#StrongNonfarmPayrollsRekindleRateHikeFear #FedHike #MacroPressure #NasdaqCrash #SemisTumble