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BTC may sharply drop to $40k
①High interest rates persist: By mid-2026, the Federal Reserve will still keep the benchmark interest rate firmly anchored between 3.50% and 3.75%, with inflation remaining high (3.8%), and expectations for rate cuts continue to be delayed.
②Capital outflow: As long as the risk-free yield of traditional US bonds remains high, traditional institutional funds will continue to flow out of the crypto market. Meanwhile, the ongoing net outflows from Spot ETFs since May also prove that the market currently lacks "receiving" incremental funds.
③Although MicroStrategy (MSTR)'s debt structure is safe, when Bitcoin drops below $60,000, its average holding cost of $75,699 has already resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in unrealized losses. The most critical point is that MSTR has, for the first time in history, violated its commitment by selling 32 BTC to pay the interest on its preferred stock.