Currently, the cryptocurrency market is facing a convergence of a series of bearish factors, and there is a high probability that the price will break below the $60k level. The specific analysis is as follows:

1. The order book shows a significant accumulation of sell orders, while buy orders have sharply decreased;
2. ETF funds continue to flow out net, with 14 consecutive trading days of net outflows, totaling approximately $4.4 billion, setting the longest record since the product was launched in January 2024. In the first week of June alone, net outflows exceeded $1.4 billion, indicating that this decline is due to structural fund withdrawal rather than emotional volatility;
3. On the four-hour chart, bullish volume has halved, and bearish volume has also decreased significantly. The main bearish players are waiting for the CPI data release before entering the market, while the main bullish players have already exited;
4. On the daily chart, the price rebounded to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786, around $64,500, where a doji bearish candlestick appeared. Today’s daily candle has shown a bearish decline;
5. U.S. CPI data is likely to exceed expectations, reaching 4.2%, with core CPI also surpassing forecasts, constituting a significant bearish factor;
6. The World Cup begins on June 11, shifting global attention, and some funds may flow into the betting industry;
7. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on June 15-16, with an 80% probability of rate hikes, which is a major bearish factor;
8. The FOMC meeting on June 16-17 makes rate cut expectations unlikely, and the possibility of rate hikes is on the agenda, also serving as a bearish factor;
9. Progress in negotiations for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is slow, and many economies worldwide are being dragged down by inflation triggered by high oil prices. In summary, I completely deny the view that $60,000 is the bottom of this bear market for Bitcoin. I believe a bear market bottom around $40k is more likely to occur in the second half of this year.