Probability that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen before the end of the year: 75%! How should funds bet on Gate Prediction Market?

The global energy market in 2026 is being driven by a core question: When will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal navigation?

This maritime passage, responsible for approximately 34% of global oil trade, has been effectively blocked since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran military conflict at the end of February 2026. Nearly four months have passed, and the timeline for the Strait's reopening has become a focal point for global energy traders, shipping giants, and macroeconomic policymakers alike. According to market data from Gate Prediction Markets, as of June 9th, the probability of the Strait returning to normal by the end of June is only 10%, by July 31st is 28%, and the chance of normalization before December 31st has risen to 75%. The jump in the 90-day probability itself is a key market signal reflecting global expectations about the situation.

From 10% to 75%: How Prediction Markets Price the "Strait Bet"

Gate Prediction Markets operate on a "price equals probability" mechanism, allowing funds to vote directly with USDT. When users buy shares of a particular event outcome, the transaction price immediately reflects the collective market judgment of that event's likelihood. Four months ago, Iran announced it would suspend indirect negotiations with the US and signaled a "full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz" through intermediaries, causing Brent crude oil to surge nearly 6% to above $97 per barrel. At that time, market expectations for a short-term reopening plummeted, with the probability of normalization by the end of June even lower than current levels.

Subsequently, with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stating on June 4th that Iran would manage the Strait "according to international law standards" alongside Oman, and Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub resuming loading operations, market sentiment for medium-term recovery showed a slight uptick. However, on June 8th, tensions escalated again with incidents such as Iran missile exchanges and attacks on petrochemical complexes. Amid this back-and-forth, the structural changes in the prediction market data—less than 10% probability by the end of June, rising to 28% by July, and jumping to 75% before year-end—clearly reflect a consensus of "no short-term hope, mid-term negotiations, and long-term easing."

Oil Price Fluctuations Confirm Market Anxiety: Brent Holds Above $90

The ongoing Strait blockade continues to be reflected in oil prices. As of June 9th during Asian trading hours, Brent crude futures were at $94.33 per barrel, and WTI futures at $91.29 per barrel. Although Iran and Israel announced ceasefires on June 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately emphasized that actions against Iran "are not over," keeping market vigilance high over fragile ceasefire conditions.

Iran's blockade has significantly reduced exports through the Strait of Hormuz compared to pre-conflict levels. Analysts warn that if the blockade persists for another one to two months, oil prices could jump to $150–$200 per barrel. The 400 million barrels of strategic reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) would only cover about four weeks of supply, insufficient to fundamentally alleviate systemic pressure from a prolonged blockade.

With the probability of normalization at only 10% by the end of June, crude oil prices lack strong short-term downward momentum. The market is pricing in a "continued blockade" scenario as the baseline, and any new developments in diplomatic negotiations or military actions will be directly reflected in oil prices through real-time probability data from Gate Prediction Markets.

Gate Prediction Markets: From Understanding Probabilities to Proactive Positioning

Gate Prediction Markets provide an easy entry point for ordinary users to participate in the pricing of global geopolitical events. Users do not need to manage wallets, cross-chain transactions, or pay gas fees. Simply log into the Gate exchange app with your account, go to the "Alpha" section under the "Polymarket" module, and use USDT from your spot account to participate in prediction trading on hot global events.

In prediction markets, the price itself represents the probability. For example, regarding the Strait of Hormuz, users can view the "Yes" share price at different time points to intuitively understand the market's latest judgment on the timeline for the Strait's reopening. Every buy or sell transaction continuously updates the market’s collective probability consensus. Gate also offers AI-assisted analysis, smart money tracking, and other features to help users quickly identify capital flows and market focus amid a flood of events. Currently, total trading volume in prediction markets has surged from $440 million in 2024 to hundreds of billions of dollars in 2026, making event trading an important infrastructure connecting global hotspots with capital decision-making.

The Green Field Prophet: Gate Prediction Market's World Cup Event Now Live

Alongside interest rate decisions, Gate Prediction Markets (Gate Polymarket) has launched a limited-time "Green Field Prophet" event for the 2026 World Football Championship. The total prize pool exceeds 500,000 USDT, running from June 4 to July 21, 2026. Users can register to receive free prediction coupons, and completing tasks such as spot trading, contracts, CFDs, and VIP upgrades will earn more prediction and guessing coupons for participating in football match predictions. The top 100 in the prediction points leaderboard will share 30,000 USDT and limited edition jersey boxes, with an additional 5,000 USDT reserved for the champion prediction pool. VIP users can enjoy exclusive registration rewards and jersey boxes. Log in to Gate now to sign up and experience the fun of World Cup predictions through the market.

Summary

Overall, the stepwise probability data from Gate Prediction Markets—10% by the end of June, 28% by the end of July, and 75% before year-end—clearly outline the market’s consensus on the timeline for the Strait of Hormuz's recovery: full reopening in the short term is almost impossible, chances of a turnaround by late summer are limited, but a return to normal by year-end remains the mainstream expectation. This probability curve aligns closely with current Brent crude oil prices staying above $90 and repeatedly approaching $100, reflecting the ongoing dominance of geopolitical events in commodity pricing. For investors focused on the global energy landscape, the probability data from Gate Prediction Markets is no longer just informational but a crucial forward-looking signal in event-driven trading strategies.